NFL Player Props
There are so many betting markets to consider every NFL Sunday. Some Week 5 NFL player prop bets are a good way to have some investment in a game that looks like it has a hard spread or total to decipher. There is also a much greater degree of variance in these markets, so you can stumble upon a line that gets exceeded by more than double or a line that never even comes close to hitting.
Game state, injuries, and opportunities are the three things that I’m looking to take advantage of in the player prop markets and we do have some games that are likely to give us what we’re hoping to see. This week does have some real duds, but there are also some games that have the chance to really stand out after 49ers vs. Rams set the bar pretty high on Thursday.
We also have a new and exciting tool here at VSiN, as OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections are now available. Consult them before locking in your prop wagers this weekend. I did while putting together this week’s article.
And don’t forget that our friends at Fantasy Points have some excellent tools for not only fantasy football lineup decisions, but also NFL player prop betting. Use the promo code VSIN2025 to get a discount on their Data Suite, a collection of proprietary tools and models. To get an idea of what Fantasy Points has to offer, check out their WR/CB Matchup Tool.
As always, shop around for these Week 5 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 8:00 p.m. PT on Friday, October 3 and are from DraftKings.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some Player Props NFL Week 5:
Breece Hall (NYJ) Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-120); Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Tanner Engstrand seems to have found something with the Jets running game, as they’ve racked up 5.2 yards per carry. Obviously a mobile QB like Justin Fields helps in a big way, but Hall had 81 yards on 14 carries last week against the Dolphins and now faces another bad run defense in the Cowboys.
Hall was bottled up by the strong defensive front of the Bucs, who currently lead the NFL in Rush EPA against. The Bills are 28th, and they also stopped Hall effectively, but he also had a season-low 30 offensive snaps. With Braelon Allen out for the next 2-3 months, Hall should become an every-down back. He has 52 carries and 13 catches in 145 snaps, so he’s a big part of the offensive equation and I think he will be here against a bad Cowboys run defense.
The OptaAI projections for Hall are 13.63 rushing attempts and 49.89 rushing yards, but obviously the absence of Allen is a big reason for this play.
Chris Godwin (TB) Under 52.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Godwin and Baker Mayfield tried to reconnect last week, as Godwin returned to the field for the first time since Week 7 of last season. Mayfield targeted him 10 times, but he was only able to haul in three catches for 26 yards. Godwin’s 14.6 average depth of target sits as the third-highest on the team behind Ryan Miller and Tez Johnson, who have three targets each.
Seattle has allowed the sixth-fewest yards per drive at 25.8 and the sixth-highest Pressure%. They have allowed the third-fewest yards per catch with 9.0. I don’t really see Mayfield having a ton of time to look down the field and find Godwin for some of those deep balls.
The OptaAI projection for Godwin is 50.85 receiving yards.
Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX) Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
Some of this has to do with the strength of opponent, but the Chiefs are 29th in Rush Success Rate against on defense and 31st in Rush EPA. They are not good at stopping the run. Etienne has averaged 6.1 yards per carry this season and six yards per touch, so he’s really been effective for first-year head coach Liam Coen.
I like the Jaguars in this game as well, so I think the game state could be a bit different from what is being suggested by the spread. If that’s the case, then Etienne, who has averaged nearly 99 rushing yards per game, should get some opportunities in the second half to salt the game away. Thus far, he’s had at least 14 carries in every game and has actually had a pretty big share of carries relative to his snap count with 65 attempts and 166 offensive snaps. I’d expect him to be busy on Monday night.
The OptaAI projection for Etienne is 68.68 rushing yards.
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