NFL Player Props
Even though we are looking at NFL games for November 2 and 3, the weather isn’t expected to be a factor in just about every game this week. That is a little bit shocking for this time of year, so we can’t really use weather to our advantage in looking for Week 9 NFL player props, but injuries are omnipresent, giving us the chance to use those unfortunate situations to make some smart wagers.
We also have a new and exciting tool here at VSiN, as OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections are now available. Consult them before locking in your prop wagers this weekend. I did while putting together this week’s article and we also now have NBA Player Prop projections from Opta AI as well.
We also have a new and exciting tool here at VSiN, as OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections are now available. Consult them before locking in your prop wagers this weekend. I did while putting together this week’s article.
And don’t forget that our friends at Fantasy Points have some excellent tools for not only fantasy football lineup decisions, but also NFL player prop betting. Use the promo code VSIN2025 to get a discount on their Data Suite, a collection of proprietary tools and models. To get an idea of what Fantasy Points has to offer, check out their WR/CB Matchup Tool.
As always, shop around for these Week 9 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 4:00 p.m. PT on Friday, October 31 and are from DraftKings.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some Player Props NFL Week 9:
Nick Chubb (HOU) Over 11.5 Rush Attempts (-105)
The Texans have made some strides with their pass blocking, as C.J. Stroud is only on pace to be sacked 36 times after being sacked 52 times last season. Still, this is a Denver defense that leads the league in sacks. And I don’t just mean leads the league. I mean LEADS the league. Denver has 36 sacks, 10 more than any other team (Rams) and their 30.6% Pressure% also tops the league per Pro-Football-Reference.
However, the Broncos, who are fifth in Dropback EPA and Dropback Success Rate on defense, are 15th in Rush EPA and ninth in Rushing Success Rate. While those are still above average numbers, it definitely seems a little bit easier to run the ball against the Broncos than keep the QB upright and with enough time to throw the football.
After coming back from a devastating leg injury, Chubb has only played 42.2% of the Texans’ offensive snaps, but he has 80 carries in 199 snaps, so he’s getting the ball when he’s out there. He’s gone Over this number in four of his seven games, but also had 11 carries once. Based on the matchup, I think Houston will utilize him a little more here, even if he’s not creating many explosive runs.
Opta AI has Chubb with 11.45 rushing attempts.
Andres Borregales (NE) Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-113)
Borregales has made 12 of his 13 field goal kicks this season and should get some chances against the Falcons defense this weekend. Borregales has gone Over this number four times thus far, as he hasn’t had any attempts in two games.
The Falcons are sixth in yards allowed per drive at 28.3, but the Patriots are sixth in yards gained per drive. Atlanta hasn’t really played many good offensive teams to this point, though, and Drake Maye is playing at an elite level right now. Unfortunately, he hasn’t found as much success in the red zone, where the Patriots are converting at just 55.2% (16/29).
The Falcons have allowed the fewest red zone trips with 16. They are one of the teams with only seven games played, but I do think the defense cracks a little here. As long as it doesn’t crack all the way, this one has a great shot at coming through.
Geno Smith (LV) Over 224.5 Passing Yards (-111)
You would have to think that the Raiders off of a bye playing indoors at Allegiant Stadium would look a bit better in the passing game, right? Travis Hunter is also out for Jacksonville, which probably led to this line being a little higher than it maybe should be. That being said, Jacksonville is 26th in the NFL in Dropback Success Rate against. They’re much better in Dropback EPA because they have 10 interceptions, but they’ve also allowed 15 passing touchdowns.
The run defense has allowed fewer than four yards per carry, so I feel like the Raiders will want to focus on throwing the ball. The Jags also have only eight sacks this season, so Smith should have time to throw, a luxury he hasn’t taken advantage of yet with the 10th-most Time To Throw per NFL Next Gen Stats. But, off of the bye, it feels like the offense can be crisper.
Game state might help here as well, as the Jaguars are road favorites and are objectively the better team.
Opta AI projects Geno for 224.53 passing yards.
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