NFL Player Props
If you’re like me, the start of the NFL Playoffs leads to the soundbyte of Jim Mora saying “Playoffs?!” from back in 2001. Honestly, it’s hard to believe that November clip will be 25 years old in just 10 months. We’re all getting old. Of course, that’s way better than the alternative.
Anyway, NFL Player Props. That’s what I’m looking at here for the Wild Card Weekend, as we only have 12 teams worth of players to evaluate as opposed to the 32 that we’ve had for the previous 18 weeks. These prop lines will be more scrutinized by the sportsbooks with fewer things to follow, so you really want to be aware of not getting the worst of the number or paying some sort of premium.
OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections are now available. Consult them before locking in your prop wagers this weekend. I did while putting together this week’s article.
And don’t forget that our friends at Fantasy Points have some excellent tools for not only fantasy football lineup decisions, but also NFL player prop betting. Use the promo code VSIN2025 to get a discount on their Data Suite, a collection of proprietary tools and models. To get an idea of what Fantasy Points has to offer, check out their WR/CB Matchup Tool.
As always, shop around for these Wild Card Weekend NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 11:45 a.m. PT on Friday, January 9 and are from DraftKings.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some Player Props NFL Wild Card Weekend:
Aaron Rodgers (PIT) Over 20.5 Completions (-108)
The Steelers offense faces a really stiff test here against the Texans and I’m not sure how much running room they are going to find. Pittsburgh has found success on the ground of late, ranking fourth in Rush EPA and seventh in Rush Success Rate over the last five weeks. Meanwhile, they are 15th in Dropback EPA and 23rd in Dropback Success Rate.
That seems counterintuitive to taking an Over completions prop, but I think the Texans defense is going to want to force Rodgers to beat them. Rodgers has the third-lowest Intended Air Yards in the league per Next Gen Stats, better than only Brady Cook and Dillon Gabriel. The return of DK Metcalf should help in a big way here. The Texans also allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards, but were right around the middle of the pack in receiving yards from running backs. Kenneth Gainwell is second on the Steelers with 85 targets. Jaylen Warren is sixth with 45.
Smith should view that as a big part of the equation here and that should help Rodgers pick up some cheap completions.
OptaAI projects Rodgers for 20.01 completions.
Kyle Monangai (CHI) Over 5.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Monangai has pretty projectable playing time at this point, as he’s played between 40.9% and 45.3% of the snaps over the last six weeks. His usage was higher at times early in the season, especially with D’Andre Swift banged up, but he’s consistently playing 23+ snaps a game.
With wind gusts up in the 35 mph range here, it’s going to be very hard to throw the ball down the field. The Packers defense should be pressing on the outside and looking to stop the run, which may free Monangai up for some receiving yards. Monangai has had at least one catch in 11 games this season and has gone Over 5.5 receiving yards in nine of those.
I’d be shocked to see him go without a catch here, even if he’s only had 18 during the season. The weather conditions should benefit his chances and the game state may call for using the backs as receivers to loosen things up.
OptaAI projects Monangai for 9.00 receiving yards.
Packers/Bears Longest Made FG Under 49.5 (-130)
A juicy prop here, but a way to handicap the weather. With gusts 30-35 mph or maybe even more, plus cold conditions and a hard football, it could be a really tough day for the kickers in the Windy City.
As it is, Brandon McManus is 3/5 from 50+ and just 3/7 from 40-49, so he’s been very iffy from distance and I’m not even sure that Matt LaFleur, who has the second-ranked offensive by third down conversion rate, will have to attempt a long field or will want to.
Cairo Santos is 4/6 from 50+ and has a long of 54 on the season. Three of his four 50+ makes have come in domes. He did bury a 51-yarder on a chilly evening against the Packers in Week 16, but that feels like more of an exception than anything else.
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