Carolina Panthers 2024 Predictions and Odds:

The Panthers are clearly the worst team in the division again, but hiring acclaimed quarterback guru Dave Canales as head coach should really help with the progression of second-year QB Bryce Young, as Canales greatly impacted the careers of both Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. There was quite a bit of roster turnover for the Panthers this offseason, with both helpful additions and key losses to a team in full-blown rebuild mode. 

Offense

Last season, Carolina ranked 29th in EPA/play and 30th in offensive success rate. These numbers indicate the Panthers were neither efficient nor explosive. This season, using the T Shoe Index as our reference point, Carolina is only expected to put up a 16.8 offensive rating – meaning they would only be expected to score ~17 points against a league-average team. 

 

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The additions of Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette will be nice additions to this offense and give Bryce Young two more competent receivers to target, although I don’t think either one is necessarily a star. Thankfully, veteran Adam Thielen is back, although he’s certainly not a young pup anymore and has a pretty extensive injury history, so his reliability is in question over the course of a 17-game season. Don’t expect a ton of consistency out of this bunch, but there is potential for some occasional fireworks. 

Other notable additions include second-round pick RB Jonathon Brooks and help on the offensive line with guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis.

Defense

The defense was slightly better than the offense last year, ranking 26th in defensive EPA/play and 20th in defensive success rate. These numbers aren’t very good, but it’s a starting point for a team that made the aforementioned impactful roster additions to this side of the ball. This season, TSI expects the Panthers’ D to allow about 24 points per game, which is just a tick worse than league average.

Key additions include Edge K’Lavon Chaisson, Edge Jadeveon Clowney, S Jordan Fuller,  LB Josey Jewell, Edge D.J. Wonnum, while some key losses include S Vonn Bell, Edge Brian Burns, S Jeremy Chinn, Edge Yetur Gross-Matos, CB Donte Jackson, LB Frankie Luvu.

Outlook

Again, this team is in rebuild mode so I think their internal assessment is going to be based on progress and evaluating which pieces are long-term Panthers and which spots they need to bring in reinforcements more so than wins and losses. I think they have the potential to be a fun offense to watch and I’m anxious to see what Canales can do with Bryce Young, who’s just two years removed from a magical Heisman season at Alabama. Even if the offense improves to where the defense was last year, which is bad-not-awful, this team will at least be a fun, capable team on any given Sunday.

TSI ranks the Panthers’ schedule as just 29th in the league and projects them to have 5.9 wins, so with a win total Over/Under of 4.5, I think I would lean Over, although I don’t know how you’d feel great about betting an Over on a team with this low of a floor.

Carolina Panthers Pick: Over 4.5 Wins

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