On Sunday, January 11, the Los Angeles Chargers head to Foxborough for a meeting with Drake Maye and the New England Patriots in the AFC Wild Card Round. We try to dive into all of the standalone games throughout the NFL season and the NFL Playoffs won’t be any different. So keep reading for a Chargers vs. Patriots betting preview. Also, make sure you head over to our NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Chargers vs. Patriots
When: Sunday, January 11 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts
Channel: NBC / Peacock
Chargers vs. Patriots Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday, January 8. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Patriots -185, Chargers +154
Spread: Patriots -3.5 (-108), Chargers +3.5 (-112)
Total: Over 45.5 (-115), Under 45.5 (-105)
Chargers vs. Patriots Analysis
You never know how a young quarterback will perform in his first taste of postseason action, but doubt Maye at your own peril. The 23-year-old is coming off a regular season in which he completed 72.0% of his passes and threw for 4,394 yards with 31 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. He also rushed for 450 yards and four scores. In addition to having awesome traditional numbers, Maye was also Pro Football Focus’ fourth-ranked quarterback when looking at passing grade (87.8), and he was rbsdm’s most efficient quarterback (0.223 EPA + CPOE composite) by a significant margin.
When thinking about Los Angeles’ pathways to victory, the most obvious one would be the Chargers’ sixth-ranked defense (-0.077 EPA per play allowed) overwhelming Maye in his first playoff game. But I’m not sure that’s something you can count on. Maye performed at a high level in several high-leverage spots this year. It’s easy to pick apart the Patriots’ schedule, but Maye was able to lead New England to road wins over Buffalo and Baltimore. Say what you want about both of those defenses, but those aren’t easy places to win. And I just don’t see the second-year star stinking up the joint inside Gillette Stadium. Josh McDaniels can be trusted to continue scheming guys open, and Maye should be able to continue delivering the ball accurately. He should also make some plays with his legs.
There’s also a pretty good chance the Patriots defense completely stifles the Chargers offense. New England was No. 4 in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.137) from Weeks 1 through 10, when Milton Williams was healthy. Things fell apart when he nursed an injury from Weeks 11 through 17, but he was back in the lineup in Week 18. It’s now hard not to like the Pats to bottle up an inefficient Chargers running game. That’ll then put pressure on Justin Herbert to deliver. Herbert is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league, so that really shouldn’t be a problem. However, Los Angeles’ offensive line is a mess without Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. The Chargers haven’t been able to keep Herbert upright, and I see that being a major issue here. Herbert is also dealing with an injured left wrist, complicating things a bit more.
There’s just a lot favoring the Patriots heading into this game. The advanced stats also tell a really good story for New England. I already got into a few of them, but the Patriots are a Tier 1 team when looking at rbsdm’s 2025 Team Tiers that are made with Net EPA per play. They’re right near the top of the league with the Rams, while the Chargers are sitting in Tier 3. New England’s offense is the driving force behind that, as the Pats are elite when they have the ball. The Chargers are closer to the bottom of the league there. And defensively, the gap between Los Angeles and New England isn’t that wide, even if the Chargers are a bit better.
Mike Vrabel also happens to be 16-12 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 in his coaching career. Meanwhile, Jim Harbaugh is 1-2-1 ATS and 0-4 straight-up when taking on teams with winning percentages of 75% or higher with Los Angeles.
Chargers vs. Patriots Player Props
Lean: Drake Maye Over 238.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The Chargers are a very strong team defensively, and it’s harder to throw in playoff games than regular season games. However, it’s still hard not to feel like Maye’s passing yard total is a little too low. Maye went Over the mark for this game in 12 of the 17 games he played this year, so he showed up as a passer regularly — which shouldn’t be surprising considering he’s in the running for MVP. Our OptaAI player prop projections also happen to have Maye throwing for 262.51 yards here, so that’s a pretty big edge to the Over.
Chargers vs. Patriots Pick
It would have been nice to get New England -3, but I’m fine with laying up to 4 with the Patriots. I know New England played an easy schedule, but great teams handle their business consistently and the Patriots were able to do that. I’m also not sure the Chargers present any sort of unique challenge that the Pats haven’t seen before. So, I’m taking New England to win this one comfortably.
Bet: Patriots -3.5 (-105)
