In the first of three Saturday games in Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season, the New England Patriots host the Los Angeles Chargers at Gillette Stadium. We’ll continue diving into all of the stand-alone games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 17 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
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How To Watch Chargers vs. Patriots
When: Saturday, December 28th at 1:00 pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts
Channel: NFL Network
Chargers vs. Patriots Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, December 27th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Chargers -230, Patriots +190
Spread: Chargers -4.5 (-108), Patriots +4.5 (-112)
Total: Over 42.5 (-110), Under 42.5 (-110)
Chargers vs. Patriots Analysis
Our VSiN DraftKings betting splits and Circa betting splits pages tell two different stories. DraftKings shows that the bets and handle are pretty much entirely coming in on the Chargers, while Circa has the public on Los Angeles and the sharps on New England. It also looks like both books are mostly receiving bets on the Over, but Circa does have the number at 42. DraftKings has it at 42.5.
If you have looked at our game previews in the past, you probably know that I tend to like aligning myself with the sharp money. However, this is a game in which I’ll be siding with the public.
While New England seems like the sharper side, the team is just 21st in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.055). That’s concerning with Los Angeles having a solid run-blocking line, along with an offense that runs the ball 45.05% of the time. Even with some injuries in the backfield, the Chargers should be able to run all over the Patriots. And if they can do that, they will likely win this game by a pretty wide margin.
The reality is that Los Angeles is seventh in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.031) this year. New England is 30th (0.078). And when it comes to EPA per play, the Chargers are 16th in the league (0.001). The Patriots are just 26th (-0.067). That said, Los Angeles has a pretty significant edge on both sides of the ball. And while Drake Maye has been awesome in his rookie season, the Chargers have an edge at quarterback. I also trust Los Angeles’ coaching staff a lot more. On top of all of that, the Chargers must win this game. The Patriots have no incentive to win.
The trends also favor the Chargers. This season, Los Angeles is 10-4-1 against the spread, and the team is 5-2 ATS on the road. The Chargers are also 7-2-1 ATS when facing AFC teams. Meanwhile, the Patriots are just 2-3-1 ATS when playing at home. It’s also hard to ignore that Jim Harbaugh is 16-5-1 ATS as a road favorite of 7 or less in his career, and that includes a 3-1 ATS mark with Los Angeles. He often takes care of business when he’s expected to do so.
Chargers vs. Patriots Player Props
J.K. Dobbins Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
The Chargers activated Dobbins, so he’ll be playing in Week 17. Well, Gus Edwards won’t be out there for Los Angeles. So, it’s likely Dobbins will have a massive workload. And if Dobbins flirts with 15 carries in this game, he should easily go for 52 or more yards. Dobbins had rushed for at least 52 yards in three of his previous four games before getting injured against Baltimore. And he was running well in that game, as he had six carries for 40 yards before hurting his knee. That said, as long as Dobbins makes it through this one without picking up another injury, he should have a big game. As mentioned earlier, Los Angeles wants to run the football. And Dobbins is the guy in this backfield right now.
Chargers vs. Patriots Pick
I’ll be playing Los Angeles to cover in this game, and I’m also going to take the Dobbins player prop. I think the Chargers are going to control this game on the ground, and I trust Jesse Minter and his defense to force some mistakes out of Maye. Los Angeles has 14 interceptions this season. Only six teams in the NFL have more.
Bet: Chargers -4.5 (-105) & Dobbins Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
