On Saturday, January 11th, the Houston Texans will host the Los Angeles Chargers for some Wild Card Round action at NRG Stadium. VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke and I will provide in-depth previews of all of the NFL postseason games, so now is a great time to take advantage of our special and grab a VSiN Pro subscription. Not only will we have all sorts of written content over the next few weeks, but our live programming will be hitting on these games regularly throughout the playoffs. Bookmark our Wild Card Round NFL Betting Hub for all of our NFL betting content.

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How To Watch Chargers vs. Texans

When: Saturday, January 11th at 4:30 pm ET

Where: NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas

Channel: CBS / Paramount+

Chargers vs. Texans Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, January 8th. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Chargers -2.5 (+100), Texans +2.5 (-120)

Spread: Chargers -162, Texans +136

Total: Over 42.5 (-108), Under 42.5 (-112)

Chargers vs. Texans Analysis

Earlier this week, ESPN analyst and former NFL head coach Rex Ryan said the Chargers “get a bye” in facing this Texans team. Our DraftKings betting splits and Circa betting splits pages show that the public agrees with that sentiment, as an overwhelming majority of the bets in this game have come in on Los Angeles. However, there is some sharp money on Houston at Circa, and that’s pretty significant to me. I was already leaning towards taking the Texans before seeing that, but seeing a lot of the pros on the Houston side pushed me over the edge. However, I’m not just taking the Texans to cover the 3-point spread. I’m going with Houston to win outright.

It’s just hard not to like the matchup for Houston defensively. While Justin Herbert is an excellent quarterback, Los Angles is 10th in the league in run frequency and badly wants to establish the ground attack. The entire Chargers offense is built off the threat of the run. But the Texans are sixth in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.146). They can really clog up running lanes. So, I’m not sure I see Los Angeles getting the running game going. And when Herbert does drop back to throw, Houston has some extremely reliable corners. The Texans just need to keep Ladd McConkey in line, and Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter should be able to do that.

Of course, Houston will need to find a way to score. That has been a problem all year with this team, and C.J. Stroud’s sophomore slump has been very real. But it is worth noting that Los Angeles’ defense was a shell of itself in the second half of the season. From Week 10 on, the Chargers were just 18th in EPA per play allowed (0.035). And it was very possible to throw against this secondary, which was dynamite from Weeks 1 through 9. So, while Stroud turned in some stinkers throughout the year, there will be some throws to be made in this game. He just needs to get the ball out quickly and deliver with some accuracy. And Stroud was slightly better at home than he was on the road this year, so playing at NRG Stadium should work in his favor. We also saw him shred the Browns in this building in last year’s Wild Card Round, going 16 for 21 for 274 yards and three touchdowns. Perhaps that will give him the confidence he needs to bounce back.

This game just feels closer to a 50-50 than the odds suggest. I also like that Houston is 12-9 straight-up in games with lines of +3 to -3 under DeMeco Ryans. And Los Angeles is just 3-4 SU when facing teams with winning records under Jim Harbaugh.

As far as the total goes, I won’t have any plays. The number is just a little too low for an Under play, but I do think it’ll lean lower in scoring. The Under is 10-6-1 in Houston games this season, and it’s 6-1-1 in Texans home games. These are also two teams that are much better defensively than they are offensively. And while Houston has had trouble finding efficiency with Joe Mixon and the running game, the team won’t hesitate to hammer away with him.

Chargers vs. Texans Player Props

Nico Collins Anytime TD Scorer (+145)

Despite having only played one drive against the Titans last game, Collins had five catches for 38 yards and a touchdown in Week 18. Houston just doesn’t have a lot of reliable pass-catching options right now, so Stroud isn’t hesitating to pepper the guys he trusts. Well, there’s nobody he trusts more than Collins, who has emerged as one of the best receivers in the NFL. That said, with the season on the line, I’d be stunned if Stroud isn’t looking in Collins’ direction as often as possible. But rather than going with Collins to go Over his receptions or yard totals at worse numbers, why not take the talented wideout to find the end zone at +145? Collins isn’t simply a guy that makes things happen between the 20s. He’s 6-foot-4 and has all the strength in the world to make plays in the red zone. So, if he and Stroud don’t connect for a long touchdown at some point in this game, there’s a chance it happens when Houston is deep in enemy territory.

Chargers vs. Texans Pick

This won’t be my only play of the Wild Card Round, but it is absolutely my favorite play. While a lot of people want to put blind faith in Harbaugh to win a big game, this Los Angeles team wasn’t all that good in the second half of the season. So, while you can say what you want about the AFC South, I’m not sold on the Chargers being the better team than the Texans. In fact, I think the Houston defense will be the best unit on the field in this one. Combining that with home-field advantage made it hard for me to lay off plus-money odds. Also, Steve Makinen had a great trend in his NFL Playoffs betting trends and systems story. Since 2016, home underdogs are 8-2 against the spread and 6-4 SU in playoff games.

Bet: Texans ML (+136)

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