The second of three Thanksgiving Day matchups for the 2025 NFL season features the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Kansas City Chiefs at AT&T Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the big standalone games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 13 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Chiefs vs. Cowboys
When: Thursday, November 27th at 4:30 pm ET
Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Channel: CBS / Paramount+
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, November 25th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Chiefs -180, Cowboys +150
Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (-105), Cowboys +3.5 (-115)
Total: Over 52.5 (-110), Under 52.5 (-110)
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Analysis
There’s some real buzz in Dallas heading into this Thanksgiving Day matchup with Kansas City. Not only do the Cowboys always play on Thanksgiving, but they’re coming off back-to-back win-and-covers. And last week’s result gave Dallas fans some real reason to believe in the team, as the group defeated a very good Philadelphia squad. The Cowboys were down 21-0 in that game, but they scored 24 unanswered to come away with that victory.
Dallas is just 29th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.126) this season, but some trade deadline deals have really changed things. The Cowboys went out and got Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson at the deadline, and they have an EPA per play allowed of -0.094 in the two weeks they’ve had those two in the lineup. That’s a top-10 mark in the NFL in that span. Now, Dallas seemingly has a league-average defense. That should be good enough when you factor in the Cowboys’ sixth-ranked EPA per play (0.122) on offense, which is spearheaded by Dak Prescott and an elite passing game.
This is suddenly looking like a very enticing matchup. A couple of weeks ago, the thought of Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City going to work against the porous Dallas defense would have been scary for anybody with any sort of belief in the home team. Now, this looks like a meeting between two evenly-matched teams.
It definitely looks like there’s market belief in the Cowboys too. Our VSiN betting splits show a majority of tickets and handle on Dallas. The Cowboys, who were +4.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook when this became available on November 18, are now down to +3.5. Meanwhile, Circa Sports opened with Cowboys +3.5 on November 23, but they’re down to +3.
This is, however, a spot in which I think there’s been a bit of an overreaction. While I’m impressed by what Dallas has done over the last two weeks, I’m still not fully buying into this team’s defensive turnaround. I’m also still somewhat high on the Chiefs, so I’m fine with laying a field goal in this game.
Kansas City’s offensive line isn’t perfect, but some of the group’s best players are on the interior. That should prevent Williams from living in the backfield and making Mahomes’ life a living hell. And if Mahomes does have some time in the pocket in this one, he should be able to shred this secondary. After all, Kansas City still has a better group of weapons this season than the team has had in quite some time, and Mahomes is capable of getting the ball out to all of those guys. That said, I still think there’s a decent chance the Chiefs hang a big number in this one — especially with the offense having some momentum after a strong second half against the Colts last week.
I also feel pretty good about about Kansas City’s defense showing up in this game. It’s hard to completely stop this Dallas offense, as the team has some serious studs at wide receiver. However, the Chiefs are very well coached on the defensive side of the ball, and they do have some talent in the secondary. I also expect them to be more prepared than the Cowboys on a short week.
Kansas City is also 32-22-1 against the spread as a road favorite of 7 or fewer under Andy Reid. The Chiefs are also 14-9 ATS when coming off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse with Reid on the sidelines. They should clean some things up and show up ready to play in what is really a must-win game.
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Player Props
Lean: Patrick Mahomes Over 266.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The biggest edge our OptaAI player prop projections has this week is for Mahomes to go Over his passing yard total. They have the superstar throwing for 298.07 yards. That number is nothing when considering Mahomes threw for 352 in last week’s overtime win over Indianapolis. Mahomes has also thrown for at least 267 yards in six of the last eight games. And there’s a chance this game ends up being very high scoring because of Dallas’ offense, so Mahomes might need to throw a lot.
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Pick
While Dallas’ defense has been a lot better in recent weeks, I’ll take my chances laying a field goal with Mahomes against a secondary that has been extremely leaky for most of the year. This is also a massive game for the Chiefs, who can’t afford to take many more losses this season. We saw what that desperation meant last week, with Kansas City turning on the jets in the second half to beat one of the best teams in the NFL.
Bet: Chiefs -3 (-114)
