On Sunday, February 9th, the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will be going for their third Super Bowl in a row when they take the field at the Caesars Superdome, and we’ve been covering this game from every angle at VSiN. I already wrote up an early Chiefs vs. Eagles preview for our Super Bowl LIX Betting Guide. We also have all sorts of picks and analysis on our Super Bowl LIX Betting Hub. On top of that, our talented VSiN hosts haven’t stopped talking about the game on our live programming. However, I have added some plays since writing up that original preview, so I wanted to write a little something that puts all of my thoughts together. So, keep reading for my Chiefs vs. Eagles best bets.

Eagles ML (+112)

Factoring in the regular season and playoffs, the Eagles have an EPA per play of 0.124 and the Chiefs have an EPA per play of 0.080. Then, on the defensive side of the ball, Philadelphia has an EPA per play allowed of -0.086. Kansas City’s EPA per play allowed is 0.019. Those are two strong metrics that suggest the Eagles are the better team on both sides of the ball. FTN’s DVOA also favors them by a pretty significant amount. So, with this being a neutral-field game, I jumped all over Philadelphia at plus-money odds. I ended up playing the Eagles for three units.

 

***Top NFL Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

Not only is the Chiefs EPA per play somewhat troubling, it’s worse that Kansas City is just 15th in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.093). The Chiefs are going up against Saquon Barkley and the league’s best rushing attack, and I’m just not sure they’re going to be able to consistently find gaps and get hands on the star running back in the backfield. The Eagles have PFF’s top-ranked offensive line, and I feel good about them pushing around the Chiefs defensive line here.

Of course, Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best defensive coordinators in the sport, so he could have a plan up his sleeve. And he’ll surely have something ready to try and throw Jalen Hurts off. But two years ago, in Super Bowl LVII, Hurts threw for 304 yards with a touchdown and no picks against a better Chiefs defense, and he also rushed for 70 yards and three scores in that one. He should be ready for this moment.

I know advanced stats don’t mean everything. Andy Reid’s ability to win big games and Mahomes’ crunch-time greatness have to count for something. Those were big reasons why I backed Kansas City to beat San Francisco in last year’s Super Bowl. But this Eagles team is much better than that 49ers team, and this is the worst Chiefs team we have seen in years — even if Kansas City’s record doesn’t back that up.

Dallas Goedert Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

I’m sitting on an Over of 47.5 yards with Goedert, as I wrote the game up very early and put it in as soon as I could. Now, the best number you’ll find is 49.5. I’d still play it there. During the regular season, the Chiefs allowed 69.6 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends. That was the highest mark in the entire NFL. Goedert also went for 60 yards in Super Bowl LVII, and he’s coming off a game in which he had 85 yards against the Commanders.

Philadelphia simply loves to scheme open Goedert with some short crossers over the middle of the field. From there, Goedert has the speed and toughness to pick up some big yardage. He’s awesome after the catch.

Dallas Goedert Most Receiving Yards In Super Bowl LIX (+850)

Not only am I looking to win 1.5 units on Goedert to go Over 47.5 yards, but I also put a half-unit on Goedert to lead the game in receiving yards at +850. As previously mentioned, Goedert is coming off an 85-yard performance against Washington, and I wouldn’t be all that surprised if he comes close to reaching that mark again. The Chiefs are very vulnerable over the middle of the field, which is where Goedert does his damage. And if Goedert does have 80 or more yards, you’re going to want to be holding this ticket. AJ Brown has the highest receiving yard total in this game at 80.5. He’s the likeliest player to lead the game in receiving yards, and Travis Kelce is probably second. But both of those players will be the focal points of the opposing defense.

Jahan Dotson Over 0.5 Receptions (-125)

If you haven’t signed up for our free VSiN Daily newsletter, you need to jump on that immediately. VSiN CEO Bill Adee does an unbelievable job of keeping you updated on all things betting, and the newsletter also does a good job of letting you know what’s available on our website. Bill also occasionally includes some interesting things he receives from VSiN fans and readers, and many of them are good handicappers themselves. And I’m tailing a play that was submitted on Monday, which calls for Dotson to come up with at least one catch in the Super Bowl.

While Dotson has failed to come away with a catch in back-to-back games, he continues to run a healthy amount of routes. And Jake Parish, who sent in that pick, did a good job of pointing out that Hurts is lined to throw between 26.5 and 27.5 pass attempts. That’s up from what we’ve seen in recent games. So, if Dotson continues to spend a good amount of time on the field, he could benefit from an uptick in passing from Hurts — especially with the Chiefs looking to do everything they can to take Brown and DeVonta Smith out of this game.

Patrick Mahomes To Throw INT (+120)

Part of the reason I like the Eagles is that I believe their defense can give Mahomes some trouble. I know that Mahomes is 8-0 against defensive coordinator Vic Fangio in his career, but that stat means absolutely nothing to me. Kansas City’s offense isn’t as talented this season as it has been in past years, and Philadelphia’s defense is absolutely loaded.

The Eagles are especially tough in the secondary, where their young defensive backs are peaking at the right time. Obviously, Darius Slay has proven to be a great corner all throughout his career, but Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell are turning into high-level cover corners. The latter is honestly there already. Philadelphia also happens to have four interceptions since the start of the postseason, and that’s tied for the highest mark in football.

I just wouldn’t be surprised if one of these talented defensive backs makes a good play on the ball at some point in this game, and there’s also a chance that an Eagles defensive lineman will get a hand on a ball and tip it up in the air. There are some big boys up front for Philadelphia.

Mahomes has also been a quarterback that can get up there in turnover-worthy throws, even if that wasn’t the case this season. That said, at plus-money odds, I’m taking a shot here. I originally put a half-unit on it at +101, but it has since moved to +120. I added another half-unit there.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR