On Sunday, September 21st, the New York Giants host the Kansas City Chiefs for some Week 3 Sunday Night Football. This is a meeting between two desperate teams. For the Chiefs, things are a little more alarming; Kansas City has Super Bowl aspirations every year, so an 0-3 start would be borderline unacceptable. However, Brian Daboll can’t afford another miserable season in New York, and losing this game would mean a much hotter seat. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 3 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Chiefs vs. Giants
When: Sunday, September 21st at 8:20 pm ET
Where: MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
Channel: NBC
Chiefs vs. Giants Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, September 19th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Chiefs -325, Giants +260
Spread: Chiefs -6 (-110), Giants +6 (-110)
Total: Over 45.5 (-108), Under 45.5 (-112)
Chiefs vs. Giants Analysis
The Chiefs are a popular pick heading into this primetime game. Our VSiN betting splits show nearly 70% of the bets on Kansas City at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the amount of handle is even more significant. Meanwhile, at Circa Sports, nearly 80% of the bets are on the Chiefs, but there’s way less handle — which is perhaps a sign that the Giants are the sharp side.
It isn’t hard to see why Kansas City is the public play. As long as Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback, the Chiefs will have Super Bowl aspirations. Plus, with Kansas City being winless, there’s a sense of urgency that many believe will lead to a straightforward win against a lesser New York squad. If only things were that simple.
Heading into this year, 0-2 underdogs were 37-17 against the spread in Week 3 dating back to 2017. Miami added another cover for that trend on Thursday night, and it does apply to New York in this game. That’s right, the Chiefs aren’t the only desperate team coming into this one.
Steve Makinen, who posts fantastic trends and insights for us on a daily basis, has also noted that Russell Wilson is 10-7 straight-up and 13-4 ATS as a home underdog since 2012. He likes these spots.
The Giants also have a slightly better EPA per play (0.042) than the Chiefs (0.041) through two weeks, thanks in large part to last week’s offensive explosion against the Cowboys. But that performance can’t just be thrown out, as it looked like Wilson started to click with Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson. Perhaps it’s a sign of things to come. New York also got some good stuff out of rookie Cam Skattebo, who rushed for 45 yards and a touchdown and also had two catches for 14 yards. Now, these teams are on level playing field statistically heading into this week, as Kansas City is only marginally better when it comes to EPA per play allowed (0.154 vs. 0.161).
Outside of the team names and jerseys, there just isn’t much that suggests the Chiefs are almost a touchdown better than the Giants right now. So, if you’re desperate to play Kansas City, I’d strongly suggest throwing the team into a moneyline parlay, or teasing this down so that you’re not laying any points.
Having said all of that, the best play in this game might be the Over. This thing opened at 42.5 on September 9th, but it’s all the way up to 45.5 in some spots. However, it is hard to forget last week’s game between New York and Dallas. That game was tied 37-37 before overtime, and the Giants were marching up and down the field on offense while giving up big plays in bunches on defense. I’m not sure this one will look exactly like that, but it does feel like there’s a good shot this final is way closer to 50 than 40.
Kansas City’s secondary looked very beatable over the top in a Week 1 meeting with Los Angeles, and Wilson’s moon-ball is still one of the best down-the-field throws in the sport. Meanwhile, the New York secondary is clearly very leaky, so Mahomes should be able to take advantage — especially with him flashing a new connection with Tyquan Thornton, who had a 38-yard reception against the Chargers in Week 1 and then a 49-yard catch against the Eagles in Week 2.
The Over is also 30-19 in Kansas City road games with totals between 42.5 and 49 points under Andy Reid. It’s also 7-5 when New York is coming off a game in which it allowed 30 points or more under Daboll.
Chiefs vs. Giants Player Props
Russell Wilson Over 226.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Wilson didn’t do much of anything in Week 1, completing 17 of his 37 attempts for 168 yards in a loss to the Commanders. However, the attempts were undoubtedly there and he bounced back in a big way in Week 2, throwing for 450 yards with three touchdowns against the Cowboys. In that game, Wilson was taking shots down the field, putting trust in his talented receivers to make some plays. Things probably won’t be as easy against the Chiefs. Dallas’ Dropback EPA per play allowed is 0.349 this year, which is the second-worst mark in the league. But Kansas City hasn’t been great either. The Chiefs have a Dropback EPA per play allowed of 0.190, and the secondary looked extremely shaky against the Chargers in Week 1. So, there should be some plays to be made.
This just feels like a very low mark for a quarterback in a pass-happy offense. Our new OptaAI player prop projections page actually has Wilson going for 266.75 yards in this game. Comparing that to the totals available for Wilson, it’s one of the biggest edges on that page.
Chiefs vs. Giants Pick
I would have liked getting this Over at 42.5, but I still think it’ll hit at 44.5. Our VSiN matchup page for this one has an estimated score of Kansas City 24.9 to New York 21.1. That’s a slight edge to the Over. We know the Chiefs want to win by playing the ball-control game and leaning on the defense, but they’re not good enough to do that right now. So, I can see them being sucked into something of a track meet.
Bet: Over 44.5 (-114)
