On Monday, October 6, the Jacksonville Jaguars will look to put Duval County on the map with a Week 5 Monday Night Football win over the Kansas City Chiefs. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 4 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Chiefs vs. Jaguars
When: Monday, October 6 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida
Channel: ESPN
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, October 5. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Chiefs -198, Jaguars +164
Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (-108), Jaguars +3.5 (-112)
Total: Over 45.5 (-112), Under 45.5 (-108)
RELATED: Check out our Chiefs vs. Jaguars matchup page!
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Analysis
The Chiefs are coming off a dominant win over the Ravens, rolling to a 37-20 victory at Arrowhead in Week 4. Kansas City has now won two games in a row. That likely means that casual fans are back on the Patrick Mahomes wagon, which is supported by our VSiN betting splits pages. Nearly 75% of the tickets have come in on the Chiefs at DraftKings Sportsbook, and there’s even more on the road team at Circa Sports. And the spread is mostly bouncing between 3 and 3.5.
It does, however, feel a little too easy to back Kansas City. And honestly, there isn’t much right now that suggests the Chiefs are the better team. RBSDM, which is where I get my EPA per play numbers, has both of these teams in Tier 3 this season. Kansas City is a little better offensively; Jacksonville is a little better defensively. Well, with these teams having very similar statistical profiles, why not take the points with the home team — and the team with a little more to prove?
It’s also hard not to feel like the Jaguars have been a little more impressive than the Chiefs so far. Kansas City’s win over Baltimore doesn’t look as good as it should, but Jacksonville’s win over San Francisco, with Brock Purdy in the lineup, has aged rather well after seeing the depleted 49ers beat the Rams in SoFi Stadium.
The Jaguars are also second in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.097) this year, so this secondary should be able to hold up against a Chiefs team that still doesn’t have the most impressive group of wide receivers. And I’d be surprised if Kansas City can get anything going on the ground against Jacksonville. The Jags have a Rush EPA per play of -0.117 and their defensive front could pose some challenges for a Chiefs team that has a pretty lousy group of running backs.
What this realistically comes down to is whether or not Trevor Lawrence can perform well in a close game against Mahomes. Lawrence was expected to have a big year under Liam Coen, and his numbers have been pretty underwhelming. He has completed only 58.3% of his passes for 845 yards, five touchdowns, and four picks. However, some bad drops have held him back. And if Travis Etienne continues to find success on the ground, it’s only a matter of time before the former No. 1 pick gets himself going. Perhaps it’ll happen here. Lawrence’s home splits in his career are rather favorable, Kansas City’s defense still has a little to prove, and we know Coen is going to have a good game plan for this one — especially now that Robert Saleh has said the Jacksonville coach steals signals.
The Chiefs are also 0-3 both straight-up and against the spread under Andy Reid when coming off upset wins at home. On top of that, they’re 48-51-3 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points under Reid. There’s also an interesting betting system that supports a moneyline play on Jacksonville. Since 2016, teams that are outrushing opponents by 1.0 or more yards per game are 24-7 SU after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in back-to-back games. And that one is pretty easily explainable. Good rushing teams that also defend the run are tough to beat.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Player Props
Lean: Trevor Lawrence Over 212.5 Passing Yards (-112)
I won’t be playing any player props in this game, but the Over on Lawrence’s passing yard total of 212.5 is interesting. It’s going to be hard for Jacksonville to win this game without him throwing for at least 213 yards. And our Opta AI NFL Player Projections page seems to agree. They have Lawrence throwing for 246.79 yards in this game, and that’s a pretty big edge to the Over. Also, if this game doesn’t go as planned, that’s another strong case for the Over. If Kansas City takes a big lead, Jacksonville will be forced to throw a ton.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Pick
The Jaguars have been great to start this season. They’re looking like a borderline top-10 team on both sides of the ball. So, even with this being a daunting opponent, there’s no reason Jacksonville can’t keep this game close — or go out and win it. I’d suggest a normal play on the Jags +3.5, plus a half-unit risk on the moneyline.
Bet: Jaguars +3.5 (-110) & Jaguars ML (+170 – 0.5 units)
