The Week 5 Monday Night Football matchup features a big AFC showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium. Bettors should expect plenty of fireworks — and plenty of opportunities in the player prop market. Using VSiN’s suite of pro tools — including Opta AI Player Projections, the WR-CB Matchup Report, and the NFL Prop Analyzer — we’ve identified some of the best angles to attack for this primetime game.
Biggest Opta AI Player Prop Edge
CLICK HERE to check out all of our Opta AI NFL Player Prop Projections! There will soon be tons of picks available for Week 6.
Trevor Lawrence Over 217.5 Passing Yards (-112): Opta AI identified the Over on Lawrence’s prop total as a value back when the number was 214.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. However, they have Lawrence projected to throw for 246.79 passing yards, so there’s still plenty of juice to be squeezed in grabbing him to go Over 217.5. You can also get +110 odds at bet365 for Lawrence to throw for 225+, and they’re offering +215 odds for Lawrence to throw for 250+.
Best WR Matchup
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Jaguars WR Travis Hunter vs. Chiefs safety Chamarri Conner: This hasn’t been the greatest season for Hunter, who has only 13 catches for 118 yards. The 22-year-old is also searching for his first NFL touchdown. Perhaps the No. 2 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft can break out under the bright MNF lights. When sorting Fantasy Points’ WR-CB information by “Matchup,” Hunter is the only player in this game with a favorable one. Conner, who plays safety for Kansas City, spends a good amount of time covering slot receivers in Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. And his coverage grade at Pro Football Focus is only 56.7 this year.
If you think this is the game Liam Coen unleashes this talented rookie, you can grab the Over on Hunter’s receiving prop total at 31.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. DK also has plus-money odds on Hunter to have at least four receptions. He’s also +370 to score a touchdown at FanDuel.
Player Prop Trend
CLICK HERE to take a look at our NFL Prop Analyzer! Find out who has been consistently going Over/Under their player prop totals.
Brian Thomas Jr. Under 56.5 Receiving Yards (-118): In looking at our Prop Analyzer, it stood out that Thomas has gone Under his receiving yard total in all four of Jacksonville’s games. The talented wideout is averaging only 41.0 receiving yards per game. Let’s see if he can buck that trend here. This is a pretty low yardage total for a legitimate WR1, but our WR-CB matchup tool also paints a rough picture for Thomas. It doesn’t like that Thomas is going to see a lot of Trent McDuffie, who had a strong PFF coverage grade in back-to-back years heading into this one.
