Chiefs vs. Ravens AFC Championshis odds and predictions
On Sunday, January 28, the Baltimore Ravens host the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. This one will be played at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. The Chiefs are coming off a hard-fought win over the Buffalo Bills, while the Ravens blew out the Houston Texans. Now, these two talented teams are one game away from the Super Bowl. With that said, keep reading for our Chiefs vs. Ravens NFL picks and predictions to see how this one might play out.
MORE: Check out our Conference Championship betting hub for all of this week’s best bets and content
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How To Watch Chiefs vs. Ravens
Date: Sunday, January 28
Time: 3:00 pm ET
Channel: CBS
Chiefs vs. Ravens Spread
While the Chiefs offense is led by Patrick Mahomes, the defense was the better unit for Kansas City this year. The Chiefs finished the season seventh in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. However, the Ravens were better than the Chiefs defensively, finishing first in Defensive DVOA. On top of that, Baltimore was fourth in the league in Offensive DVOA. That’s an edge for the Ravens on both sides of the ball, combined with a significant home-field advantage.
What’s really concerning for the Chiefs is the fact that their defense is best against the pass. Kansas City was fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA against the pass this season. However, they weren’t great against the run, finishing 27th in the league in DVOA there. That could ultimately tilt this Baltimore’s way, as DVOA has the Ravens as the most efficient running team in the league. That big difference is also backed up by EPA per play. So it’d be shocking if Justice Hill, Gus Edwards and Dalvin Cook don’t get going — and Lamar Jackson won’t be shy about running. He rushed for 100 yards with two touchdowns last game.
If Baltimore successfully pounds the rock, that should open up the passing game. It’s also likely that Mark Andrews will be back for the Ravens. Andrews is the top pass catcher in this offense, and his presence will be big in the red zone. So, Baltimore’s offense will be in better shape than some might think.
It should also be noted that the Chiefs O-Line is a question mark. Kansas City finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 18th-ranked unit up front. Well, Baltimore is loaded with talent along the defensive line, so the team should get to Isiah Pacheco behind the line of scrimmage. The Ravens will also generate pressure against Mahomes.
Chiefs vs. Ravens Total
While I like the Ravens offense to do enough to cover, this should lean towards more of a low-scoring affair. These are two top-10 defenses and the Ravens’ best path to victory is finding success on the ground. That would most likely result in the clock bleeding quite a bit. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have had offensive struggles all year long, so I don’t foresee them lighting up a Ravens defense that has been flat-out special all season.
The Under is also 12-9-1 in the 22 games in which Baltimore has been a home favorite over the last three seasons. On top of that, the Under is 11-2 in the 13 games that the Chiefs have played on grass fields in that span. Kansas City has also gone Under in four of its last five games, and five of its last seven.
Chiefs vs. Ravens Player Prop
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Gus Edwards Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-114 – Play to Over 39.5)
Edwards rushed for 40 yards in last week’s meeting with the Texans, and Houston had a better rushing defense than Kansas City in the regular season. In fact, the Chiefs were vulnerable against the ground attack all season, and we saw the Bills running backs rush for 101 yards against them last week. So, I’m expecting Baltimore to lean heavily on the running game, and that should mean some production from Edwards. Hill does mix in quite a bit here — and Jackson also likes to use his legs — but Edwards is the most reliable between-the-tackles runner on the Ravens. That should get him enough burn to go over this low number in the AFC Championship Game, especially considering he runs for 4.5 yards per carry at home.
Chiefs vs. Ravens Prediction
The Ravens are better on both sides of the ball, so I’m laying the points in the AFC Championship Game. I know that a lot of people are going to be tempted to take the Chiefs. It’s just hard for the general public to believe that Mahomes will lose a playoff game by more than three. But this is a brutal match-up for Kansas City. Baltimore’s offense should make enough plays to make this somewhat straightforward. And the defense is top notch.
Pick: Ravens -3.5
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