NFL Conference Championship first touchdown predictions

This has been a helluva season betting NFL first touchdowns. My betting system proved true in the vast majority of weeks, helping me cash at least one ticket every week all the way up until the Divisional Round. I had no winners this past weekend, but the good news is that my system remains still hot for NFL first touchdown predictions.

What I do is track every first touchdown for every team and use that to narrow the field based on which team is better at scoring first. Despite the games featuring a lot of really good FTD (first touchdown) teams, three of the four games followed the trend. If we can use this system to cut the choices in half, we should be able to cash some more tickets.


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Looking back at the playoff games we’ve had so far, a very interesting thing happened. In eight of the 10 games, the first touchdown was scored by the winning team. This is surprising because contrary to what you may think, scoring the first touchdown does not correlate to wins. Some of the best FTD teams in the regular season didn’t even make the playoffs, i.e. the Raiders, Vikings, and Broncos. This could be a sign to make a moneyline bet live on the team who scores first!

Here are both Conference Championship matchups, along with their FTD success rates, and my picks for each:

Chiefs (68.4%) at Ravens (83.3%) – Sunday, 3 PM ET

The FTD gods are telling us to go Ravens here, so I am going to listen. And what I’m loving the most is the odds board. Lamar Jackson is the favorite to score first at +600, despite not doing so since Week 7. He only had seven rushing touchdowns this season, two of which came last week. Him being at the top of the board means everybody else’s odds are longer than they probably should be. Last week, Baltimore went totally off the map, scoring the first touchdown with Nelson Agholor, he only had two catches in the game so I’m not expecting that to become a trend. For the majority of the season, Isaiah Likely and a combination of Gus Edwards and Justice Hill have been the way to go. Those three players combined for nine of their TFTDs (team-first touchdowns). I’ll have tickets on all of them thanks to their juicy prices (Edwards +700, Likely +900, and Hill +1800). If you are tempted to pick a Chief, do not go with Travis Kelce! The Taylor Swift curse is apparently real, as he has not scored a first touchdown ALL SEASON.

Lions (63.2%) at 49ers (77.8%) – Sunday, 6:30 PM ET

I probably cashed the most tickets this season on these two teams right here so it pains me to leave one of them off of my betting slip. But, I have to go with the numbers and target Niners players. Christian McCaffrey has such short odds, +300 at DraftKings, but I just have to have him. He scored San Fran’s TFTD seven times this season, which was tied for most in the league, and more than twice as many as any other 49er. I’m going to wait until game time, but if Deebo Samuel is playing, I’ll have a ticket on him at +750. He has three team-firsts, including two in their last five games. If he doesn’t play, I like Jauan Jennings at +1500, a number I’d bet now if you can. If Deebo is ruled out, these odds will get shorter. When Samuel left the game last week, we saw Jennings run some plays that looked like they were drawn up for Samuel, so he might be of service here. And finally, I don’t love it as he only has two TFTDs this season, but George Kittle got the first score last week, so I’ll add him to the account at +750.

That’s it for this week, follow me on X (@billzinmepocket) to see my official NFL first touchdown predictions ahead of the games and see you at the Super Bowl!

For more on this week’s games, check out the NFL Betting Splits, NFL Odds, and the Vegas NFL Odds.