On Sunday, January 12th, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Washington Commanders for some Wild Card Weekend action at Raymond James Stadium. VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke and I will provide in-depth previews of all of the NFL postseason games, so now is a great time to take advantage of our special and grab a VSiN Pro subscription. Not only will we have all sorts of written content over the next few weeks, but our live programming will be hitting on these games regularly throughout the playoffs. Bookmark our Wild Card Weekend NFL Betting Hub for all of our NFL betting content.

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How To Watch Commanders vs. Buccaneers

When: Sunday, January 12th at 8:00 pm ET

Where: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida

Channel: NBC / Peacock

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday, January 9th. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Buccaneers -175, Commanders +145

Spread: Buccaneers -3 (-115), Commanders +3 (-105)

Total: Over 50.5 (-112), Under 50.5 (-108)

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Analysis

There’s nothing that stands out too much when looking at our DraftKings betting splits and Circa betting splits pages. However, Josh Appelbaum did note in his early Wild Card Weekend sharp report that the Commanders are taking sharp money whenever this moves to 3.5. Josh is as good as it gets when it comes to spotting pro action, so make sure you come back for his work throughout the week. However, with no clear side looking like the public side, you might want to just trust in the statistics and draw from what we saw when these teams met earlier in the year. That’s why I like the Buccaneers.

While Washington is fourth in the NFL in EPA per play (0.138), Tampa Bay is right behind in fifth (0.133). And realistically, the Buccaneers have been the better offensive team since the Commanders got off to a blistering hot start to the season. The reason for that is that Tampa Bay has figured out how to get the ground game going. While Jayden Daniels is awesome to watch, it’s a wash when comparing him to Baker Mayfield. These teams have identical Dropback EPA per play numbers (0.211), so both of these quarterbacks will be able to make plays through the air. But Bucky Irving comes into this game after having rushed for an average of 96.8 yards per game over the final four weeks of the regular season. He has simply been electric all year, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and finishing the season with 1,122 rushing yards on just 207 carries. His presence should mean that Tampa Bay will win the battle on the ground, and that’s crucial in the postseason. It’s important to control the clock and wear out your opponent. You also want to set up as many manageable situations for your quarterback as possible. The Buccaneers will have an easier time doing that.

As far as the defenses go, Tampa Bay is a little better than Washington. The Buccaneers have an EPA per play allowed of 0.017, while the Commanders’ is up at 0.049. And Tampa Bay is a little more reliable when it comes to slowing down the running game. That’s important because it means that the Buccaneers have a slight edge in the trenches.

It’s also hard to shake the fact that Tampa Bay beat Washington 37-20 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 1. Sure, that was Daniels’ first game in the NFL, but he actually rushed for 88 yards and two touchdowns in that game. Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles is a strong defensive mind, so he should be able to put a plan in place to keep Daniels from tearing his team up on the ground. It’s also difficult to ignore the fact that Mayfield did whatever he wanted in that first meeting. He went 24 for 30 for 289 yards and four touchdowns in Week 1. Dan Quinn is a very good defensive mind himself, and he’ll surely learn a little from watching the film from that first meeting. However, all year long, defensive personnel has been an issue for Washington. I simply don’t think the Commanders have the type of defensive backs required to slow down the Buccaneers passing game. But I might feel a little differently if Marshon Lattimore is able to get Mike Evans ejected.

Overall, Tampa Bay is just a little better on both sides of the ball, plus the team has some playoff experience. Oddly enough, for as good as Daniels was in his college career, he never played in a game with big stakes. Mayfield has played in a bunch. And Washington was just 3-5 against the spread in road games during the regular season, so going up against a Tampa team that was 5-4 ATS at home will be a challenge.

I also wouldn’t blame anybody that decides to skip out on the sides to play the Over. These are two top-five offenses when it comes to EPA per play, and both passing games are extremely explosive. So, combining that with the shaky defenses could certainly make for a high-scoring game. After all, the Over was 11-6 in Washington’s regular season games this year, and it was 12-5 in Tampa Bay’s. The Bucs have also gone Over in four straight heading into the playoffs.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Player Props

Jalen McMillan Anytime TD (+175)

With this game having the potential to turn into a shootout, there’s some real value in taking McMillan to score a touchdown. The rookie has actually scored in five straight games, and he had two games with two touchdowns in that stretch. Mayfield really likes the 23-year-old, who also benefits from being the top non-Evans target. Down in the red zone, stopping Evans becomes the main priority for the defense. He’s a huge target and excels in contested-catch situations, so defenses try to take him away. Well, that allows McMillan to work with a ton of space elsewhere. And I think that will help him keep this touchdown streak going. The odds are also incredibly enticing.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Pick

I noted this in my Broncos vs. Bills preview, but I’m playing an alternate line parlay of Denver +15.5 and Tampa Bay +4.5. I want a little insurance in case this game ends up being decided by a very small margin, and I don’t see the other game being a blowout. However, if I had to take something in this one, I’d be laying the points with Tampa Bay. I can easily see a scenario in which this ends in a push, but I do think the Buccaneers will win. I have a little more faith in the Tampa Bay defense, and I like Mayfield’s big-game history compared to a greener Daniels.

Lean: Bucs -3 (-105)

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