On Monday, October 27, the Kansas City Chiefs host the Washington Commanders in the Week 8 Monday Night Football matchup. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 8 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Commanders vs. Chiefs
When: Monday, October 27 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Channel: ABC / ESPN
Commanders vs. Chiefs Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, October 26. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Chiefs -750, Commanders +525
Spread: Chiefs -11.5 (-105), Commanders +11.5 (-115)
Total: Over 47.5 (-112), Under 47.5 (-108)
Commanders vs. Chiefs Analysis
The Commanders will be without Jayden Daniels in this game, which is why the Chiefs are favored by double digits. Kansas City is now the popular public bet, according to our VSiN betting splits.
It’s hard to blame those that want to back the Chiefs. Kansas City is third in the NFL in EPA per play (0.175), so Patrick Mahomes’ unit should be able to do some damage against a Washington defense that is 24th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.058). And without Daniels, it’ll be difficult for the Commanders to keep up. However, the best play in this game could be the Over.
Marcus Mariota is a very good backup in this league. In fact, if you ignore the snap minimum at Pro Football Focus, he’s sixth in the NFL with a Pro Football Focus passing grade of 81.5. Mariota will also have all of the Washington pass-catchers at his disposal, as Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel will both play in the Monday night game. On top of that, Kliff Kingsbury is a creative play caller, plus Mariota is a very good runner.
It just shouldn’t surprise anybody if the Commanders put a good chunk of points on the board, even if this game isn’t all that competitive. The Over has actually been a great bet when Washington has gone against good defenses since Dan Quinn took over. It’s 5-0 when the Commanders are playing on the road against teams that commit 1.0 or fewer turnovers per game since Quinn became head coach, and the average total points scored in those games is 65.8 points per game. The Over is also 6-1 in the games Washington has played against AFC competition under Quinn.
There’s also a strong betting system that favors a high-scoring game. Since 2021, the Over is 61-30 when a team with a winning record plays a game off back-to-back home games. The average total points scored in those games is 51.9 points per game. That one is also interesting because the Over is 20-15 when Kansas City is coming off a two-game home stand under Andy Reid. Perhaps the comfort of playing multiple home games in a row will lead to a big-time offensive performance from this offense.
Commanders vs. Chiefs Player Props
Lean: Rashee Rice Over 5.5 Receptions (-150)
Mike Sainristil plays as Washington’s slot corner 68% of the time, according to our WR-CB Matchup Tool. That’s good news for Rice when it comes to creating separation. Sainristil has a PFF coverage grade of 50.9, putting him 93rd out of 112 players at the position. That should make it pretty easy on Rice to flirt with the seven receptions he racked up in Week 7, when Mahomes targeted him 10 times. Rice is also fresher than most of the players on the field, as he was suspended the first six weeks of the year.
You can either go with a juiced Over on 5.5 or plus-money odds on 6.5. I won’t personally be playing either, but that’s where I’d be looking if I had to take something on the player prop market.
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Commanders vs. Chiefs Pick
I think Mariota is good enough to put up some points against this Chiefs defense with the entire Commanders suite of weapons as his disposal. That said, with the Chiefs offense looking borderline unstoppable recently, this feels like a game that should be pretty high in scoring.
Bet: Over 47.5 (-112 – 1.5 units)
