In response to a Sunday night text, VSiN host Gill Alexander replied, “I don’t know what to do with myself. How do I act?” Alexander, the captain of A Numbers Game from 9-11 a.m. ET Monday-Friday on our VSiN airwaves, is a long-suffering Redskins/Commanders fan. After all, 2005 was a long time ago. And 1992 was even longer ago than that.

But, Gill and fellow Washington supporters got to celebrate the win over the Buccaneers last week to set up a date with the Detroit Lions. As our conversation progressed, Gill added, “With this kid, anything is possible.” Soon, we’ll find out if “possible” becomes reality when Jayden Daniels and his squad take on the No. 1 seed in the NFC coming off of a bye.

 

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How To Watch Commanders vs. Lions

When: Saturday, January 18th at 8:00 p.m. ET

Where: Ford Field in Detroit, MI

Channel: FOX

Commanders vs. Lions Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday, January 16th. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Lions -455, Commanders +350

Spread: Lions -8.5 (-112), Commanders +8.5 (-108)

Total: Over 55.5 (-110), Under 55.5 (-110)

Check out our Commanders vs. Lions matchup page! Also view our DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits.

Commanders vs. Lions Analysis

The highest total on the board for the Divisional Round certainly seems to have all the makings of a shootout. The Lions finished the regular season third in EPA/play and the Commanders were fourth. And, despite a dominant effort against the recently-eliminated Vikings in Week 18, the Lions defense was 28th in EPA/play for Week 13 through Week 18.

The Lions scored points on 51.6% of their offensive possessions during the regular season and Washington was right there, too, scoring on 50% of their drives. The Lions had five more touchdowns in the red zone and one more attempt, so that was part of the scoring difference between the two teams and will be something to monitor here. These are two good offenses on third down and two pretty aggressive teams on fourth down as well.

Detroit had 19 takeaways in the first 10 games of the season, but only had five over the final seven games. Two of their worst defensive efforts by yardage allowed came in Weeks 15 (Buffalo) and 17 (San Francisco). We know that the Lions offense is plenty capable of holding up its end of the point-scoring equation, plus David Montgomery is expected to return this week to return the running back room to full strength. But, can this defense hold up against a Washington crew that really looks the part.

Turnovers may not be in the forecast in the Motor City for either team here. The Commanders only had 16 giveaways, with five of them coming in the Week 16 win over the Eagles. But, they also only had 17 takeaways themselves.

As much as the Lions defense struggled down the stretch, this was a group that ranked second in third-down conversion rate against, second on fourth down, and seventh in red-zone TD% against. What is really interesting about the defense, though, is that they struggled against the pass on first down, as opponents completed 69.3% of their tosses. As you would expect, those numbers improved by down, as more obvious passing situations followed. That may be something that Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury will want to key in on.

Commanders vs. Lions Player Props

Zane Gonzalez (WAS) Over 1.5 Field Goals (+105)

I do believe that the Commanders will move the football in this game. And even though Dan Quinn and Kingsbury have been aggressive on fourth down throughout the season, and went 3-for-5 in that situation in the game against the Bucs, there is extra-added pressure to take the points in the postseason. Gonzalez is 5-for-7 thus far, but he was a perfect 3-for-3 in Tampa and now gets to kick inside, where the weather conditions won’t be a factor at all.

Commanders vs. Lions Pick

It is my belief that Washington has a great chance to keep pace offensively with Detroit. If we get the Lions defense that we saw early in the season, this pick will be wrong and the Lions should take care of business. But, I’m not sure that we do. This is the type of game against a mobile and composed quarterback where you miss the presence of somebody like Aidan Hutchinson. He played five games and still led the team in sacks by 3.5.

Maybe the Commanders need the back door to be open, and it very well could be, but Washington also has the chance to jump out ahead if the Lions are shaking off some rust and/or nerves as the team with more pressure heading into this Divisional Round matchup. If that’s the case, having a big head start will be a positive.

Pick: Commanders +8.5

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