Commanders vs. Packers – Thursday Night Football Prop Best Bets from John Hansen:
My Week 1 was easily the worst week of prop picks in my life, but looking back at last season, my props record was a very poor 27-36 (43%), yet it climbed to 102-76 (58.5%) after the first six weeks of the season, so I’m not panicking….yet.
Thursday Night Football Props
Zach Ertz OVER 31.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
The Packers have been an underneath funnel dating back to last year, and since the start of 2024, they have allowed the second-fewest receiving YPG on deep throws (29.1) but on throws of 10 or fewer yards downfield, they’ve allowed the ninth-most (135.8), and they didn’t allow any receiving yards on throws of 20+ yards downfield in Week 1. This is a plus for Ertz (7.2 aDOT last week), who was second in target share at 16.7% and targets per route run, and also second on the team in first-read target share per Fantasy Points Data. It’s a decent schematic matchup with Green Bay using Cover 3 or Cover 2 74.4% of the time last week, and Ertz averaged a solid 1.74 YPRR against those coverages last season, and the Packers allowed the eighth-most receiving YPG (57.1) to TEs last season. Last week, Sam LaPorta got them for 6/79 receiving.
Zach Ertz Over 3.5 receptions (-105, FanDuel)
Green Bay shut down the Lions running game last week, and they also gave up a whopping 14 RB receptions (but for just 3.5 YPR), so I’m surprised the odds are as good as they are for this one. Ertz tends to get a lot of volume when they are playing from behind, which they should be on the road against a good defense, one that does not usually give up big plays.
Jordan Love Over 5.5 rushing yards (-130, FanDuel)
Coming off a bad week, I tend to gravitate to QB rushing props when the number looks good, and this number looks good. I know Love doesn’t take off and run much, but he’s capable of being a major threat with his legs, and he should see a lot of man coverage this week, since DC played it at a top-8 clip last week, which is always a good boost to rushing potential for a QB. It should take only one simple scramble from Love to move the sticks to hit this one, and I like his chances to drop back 30+ times with one of the highest totals of the week.
Austin Ekeler Over 23.5 receiving yards (-114, DraftKings)
Once again, I’m surprised the odds are this good, so I hope we’re not getting tricked here. Ekeler is on the injury report with a shoulder issue, so there is risk. But the Commanders are 3.5-point road underdogs in this one, and we have a high total of 48.5 expected. He hit this number last week with 3/30 on 3 targets, and I think Jayden Daniels will have to throw it 30+ times. Oh, and the Packers gave up 14 catches to RBs last week! Granted, for 3.5 YPR, but Ekeler has averaged over 10 YPR on 44 catches in D.C.
Deebo Samuel Over 52.5 receiving yards (-113, Draft Kings)
As mentioned above, the Packers have allowed the second-fewest receiving YPG on deep throws (29.1) but on throws of 10 or fewer yards downfield, they’ve allowed the 9th-most over that timeframe (135.8), and they didn’t allow any receiving yards on throws of 20+ yards downfield in Week 1. Deebo actually made some plays downfield last week, a good sign, but he’ll likely need some volume in this one, since he’s unlikely to make a big play downfield against this Packers defense. Still, he ran 76% of his routes from the slot last week, and while the Packers limited Amon-Ra St. Brown to 4/45 receiving in Week 1, Deebo has a chance to collect 7+ targets underneath and in the intermediate area, and his RAC ability looks good this year, so I think he’ll get to 53 yards.
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