Week 2 NFL Odds
Welcome to TSI vs. The Field: my weekly article where I compare the projections of my proprietary model, the T Shoe Index, with other notable models for the week’s games. I’ve been doing this for college football and had good success so far, so I thought I’d start this for the NFL on Fridays so we can continue to cash some bets there as well.
Remember, sometimes the best bets are the bets we walk away from because the data is mixed and we don’t feel great about it, so with this exercise, you’ll get a sense of where the computer models align and where they drastically differ so that you can make educated decisions accordingly.
The models in question are my T Shoe Index, TeamRankings, FPI (from ESPN), and Sagarin.
Here are the model consensus and disagreements for Week 2:
Note: TeamRankings is a popular sports resource website, FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Note 2: TeamRankings also has the PoolGenius product, a great Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em resource.
Week 2 NFL Odds Model Alignment:
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-1), O/U 47
Talk about a banger right out of the gate for the model consensus! Kansas City is coming off a season-opening loss to the Chargers in Brazil, while Philadelphia won but didn’t cover against divisional rival Dallas in Week 1. Our model average projection on this game is Chiefs -1, with a variance of just 0.8. TeamRankings’ model has the Chiefs by 1.5, while my TSI makes the Chiefs a half-point favorite, and FPI and Sagarin are in between there. None of our models project the Eagles to win, and I think this is a great bounceback spot for the Chiefs at home against the defending champs.
NFL Betting Pick: Chiefs +1
Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos (-1.5), O/U 43.5
The Colts shocked a lot of people with a 25-point beatdown of the Dolphins in Week 1, while Denver won but didn’t cover against Tennessee in its opener. Circa opened this game with Denver -2 and it reached a pick ‘em before coming back to Denver -1.5. Our model average on this game is Denver -0.3 with a variance of just 1.6 points, with none of them projecting a Broncos cover. TSI is the most liberal, projecting Denver -1, but Sagarin and TeamRankings are around Denver -0.5 and FPI actually projects a Colts win (-0.5).
NFL Betting Pick: Colts +1.5
Week 2 NFL Odds Model Disagreement
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5), O/U 46.5
Both of these teams are 1-0 and won as underdogs in Week 1, so it’ll be interesting to see how this game plays out and how the betting market shapes as we approach kickoff. Our models do not agree on this game, with an average projection of Chargers -2.3, but a variance of 4.4 points, which seems like a million in NFL points. TSI is right in line with the market at Chargers -3.5, with FPI at -3.8, while TeamRankings only projects Chargers -2.3 and Sagarin is actually calling for the Raiders to win by a point. Too many mixed signals here and TSI is right with the market so this is definitely a pass for me.
Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Rams (-5.5), O/U 41.5
Tennessee secured the cover in Week 1 against Denver in what was a competitive game throughout, while LA won and covered in a rock fight against the Texans. Our models aren’t quite sure what to make of that yet, though, as we’ve got an average projection of Rams -5.4 and a variance of 3.8 points. TSI and FPI would lay the points with LA, both projecting -6.5, but Sagarin and TeamRankings project -3 and -5, respectively, so they’d be on the home dog here. Of course, TSI would be my tiebreaker if I had to make a pick for a pool or something, but I don’t have an official play here since the data is so mixed.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Fridays, my Tuesday NFL best bets, and my Thursday college football model comparison.
