The Week 6 Sunday Night Football matchup could be quite interesting, as the Green Bay Packers look to stay hot when they host the Dallas Cowboys at Lambeau Field. Keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 6 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
How To Watch Cowboys vs. Packers
When: Sunday, October 18 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin
Channel: NBC
Cowboys vs. Packers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Thursday, October 15. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Packers -120, Cowboys +100
Spread: Packers -1.5 (-105), Cowboys +1.5 (-115)
Total: Over 53.5 (-105), Under 53.5 (-115)
Cowboys vs. Packers Analysis
The Packers are coming off their best win of the season. Last week, Green Bay was absolutely dominant in a 31-7 win over Chicago. Of course, Caleb Williams didn’t play in that game, and that made life easier on the Packers defense. Even still, over the last two weeks, Green Bay has an EPA/Play Allowed of -0.180, which would be good for second in the NFL over the course of the entire season.
Naturally, playing against Dak Prescott will be tougher on Green Bay than playing against Jalon Daniels and Tyson Bagent. But to an extent, I believe this Packers defense is up for it. This was a top-10 defense in Dropback EPA/Play Allowed last year, and I feel Green Bay has a better shot than Dallas when it comes to getting an extra stop or two in this game — especially with it being at home. There isn’t a team in football with a higher EPA/Play Allowed than the Cowboys’ 0.182.
The Packers have also been insanely reliable as home favorites under Matt LaFleur. They’re 39-13 straight-up and 30-22 against the spread as home favorites with him on the sidelines, and the team is also 21-5 ATS off a game allowing 14 or fewer points in that span. Similarly, Green Bay is 21-8 ATS and 19-10 SU after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. That said, when the Packers are going good under LaFleur, they’re going good under LaFleur.
Circa Sports has also moved this game from a pick ’em to Green Bay -1. It’s a little unclear if that was public money or sharp money, but a move is a move. Circa also happens to have moved this game from a total of 52 to 53.
I actually do believe the Packers and the Over are the plays when looking at the standard options in this game. However, I didn’t ultimately get to the window with either. I do think Green Bay is heading in the right direction, and Dallas has been unimpressive thus far. But I was much higher on the Cowboys heading into the year, and I’m not quite ready to back off that stance — even after five weeks.
Instead of forcing a side or a total, I’m going with some player props.
Cowboys vs. Packers Player Props
MarShawn Lloyd Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-112) & Anytime TD (+194 – 0.5 units)
I threw Lloyd plays into my Week 6 best bets column a few days before writing up this game preview. Last week, Lloyd rushed 10 times for 31 yards and two touchdowns, and he also caught a pass for six yards. It wasn’t some sort of mind-blowing performance, but it did feel like he was finally operating as the Cowboys’ unquestioned No. 1 rusher. If he has that role again, a big game could be coming here. Dallas is last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and 30th in rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs.
Cowboys vs. Packers Pick
I have leans on Green Bay and the Over, but I’m only playing the Lloyd props. I feel better about him turning in a productive day on the ground than I do anything else. Dallas is only 21st in the NFL in Rush EPA/Play Allowed (-0.063), so it’s not like the advanced stats suggest this is the worst rushing defense in the league. However, in a home game, I see the Packers ground game getting going, and I think Lloyd finds the end zone at least once in a high-scoring game.
Bet: Lloyd Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-112) & Anytime TD Scorer (+194 – 0.5 units)
