In the first of three Christmas Day matchups in Week 17 of the 2025 NFL season, the Washington Commanders host the Dallas Cowboys at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland. We’ll continue diving into all of the stand-alone games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 17 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Cowboys vs. Commanders
When: Thursday, December 25th at 1:00 pm ET
Where: Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland
Channel: Netflix
Cowboys vs. Commanders Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, December 23rd. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Cowboys -325, Commanders +260
Spread: Cowboys -7 (-110), Commanders +7 (-110)
Total: Over 50.5 (-115), Under 50.5 (-105)
Cowboys vs. Commanders Analysis
Since 2016, favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that average at least 230.0 passing yards per game are 37-11 against the spread when coming off three consecutive games allowing 7.0 or more passing yards per attempt. That situation applies to a Cowboys team that has a potent passing game. Also, the average score in those games saw the favorite win by 9.7 points per game.
A lot of trends can just be meaningless, but the idea with this one is pretty clear: Dallas’ passing offense can be trusted to go out and perform on a weekly basis, and the defense should snap out of its funk after three bad games in a row. It’s hard to keep a unit down for long — even if it’s not a great one.
Washington also happens to be just 25th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play (-0.018) since Week 8, which is when things more or less turned over to Marcus Mariota for good. So, this is a Commanders team that really isn’t moving the ball very efficiently through the air. That’s a real problem considering Washington isn’t elite when it comes to running the football either. And it might not even be Mariota here. It could be Josh Johnson or Jeff Driskel.
This is just a prime matchup for a struggling Dallas defense. The Cowboys might be lacking in both talent and organization on the defensive side of the ball, but coordinator Matt Eberflus should find a way to get his unit going against this banged-up, underperforming Commanders offense.
On the other side of the ball, Dallas has the potential to absolutely light Washington up. Only the Cowboys are worse than the Commanders when it comes to EPA per play allowed, and it’s the passing defense that is the major concern for Washington. Well, Dallas is the seventh-ranked passing offense in the league by Dropback EPA per play (0.180). Dak Prescott should be able to completely shred this Commanders secondary. Washington likely won’t have any answers for CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens. The Cowboys could also have some other players step up and make some plays if the Commanders end up sending extra coverage the way of those two wideouts.
Let’s also not forget that Dallas earned a 44-22 win over Washington back on October 19. And that was a game in which Jayden Daniels played.
Cowboys vs. Commanders Player Props
Lean: George Pickens Anytime TD Scorer (+130)
While the Cowboys are coming off a loss to the Chargers, Pickens had seven catches for 130 yards and a touchdown in that game. Pickens led Dallas in targets in that one, and it’s clear that Prescott has just as much faith in him as he does Lamb. That makes it hard not to like the plus-money odds on Pickens to find the end zone in this game. If Dallas is going to win convincingly in a high-scoring game, there should be some touchdowns to go around for the Cowboys. Well, not only is Pickens a dangerous deep-ball threat but he’s also a good lob threat down in the red zone.
Cowboys vs. Commanders Pick
I have a strong lean on the Cowboys in this game, as I think they’re going to score a bunch and I don’t have much faith in the Commanders to do the same. However, the only play I’m actually adding to my Week 17 best bets card is a moneyline parlay with Dallas and Detroit. I’d rather not have to sweat out a backdoor cover in this one, and I don’t really see any way the Lions lose to Max Brosmer.
PARLAY: Cowboys ML vs. Commanders & Lions ML vs. Vikings (-143 – 1.5 units)
