Cowboys vs. Eagles – Thursday Night Football Prop Best Bets from John Hansen:
Here are my Thursday Night Football Prop Best Bets for tonight’s game between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles.
Jake Ferguson over 36.5 receiving yards (-114, DraftKings)
While the Eagles allowed the second-fewest receiving YPG (34.8) to TEs last year, they also gave up some big games to the position, and since the Eagles are 8.5-point home favorites, it’s fair to expect a lot of passing as the Cowboys play catch-up. Philly dominated the Chiefs offense in the Super Bowl, but in their previous two playoff games, TEs piled up the production with Zach Ertz of the Commanders and Tyler Higbee/Colby Parkinson of the Rams totaling 28 targets and 20/167/3, mostly in catch-up mode, and Ertz in the NFC Championship had a whopping 16 targets and 11/104. Dallas is fully committed to Ferguson as their TE1 after they signed him to a four-year, $52 million contract and $30 million in guaranteed money in July. They are quite thin at receiver, so I’m expecting 7+ targets and 4-5 catches at minimum for Fergy.
DeVonta Smith over 54.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)
It’s good to know that one prominent Eagles beat writer is expecting Smith’s numbers to resemble 2022, when he caught 95 balls. That makes sense, since Philly will certainly have to throw the ball a little more this year. The Cowboys lost their best inside corner in Jourdan Lewis, and in the second half of 2024, they gave up a whopping 9.35 YPA to the slot, where Devonta lined up 56% of the time last year. He averaged an excellent 2.98 YPRR and 67.5 yards against Dallas last season, and the schematic matchup could be good, since new DC Matt Eberflus ran the second-highest rate of Cover 3 (44.5%) with the Bears last season, and Smith averaged a strong 2.98 YPRR and .24 TPRR against the coverage (more than A.J. Brown). Smith also dropped 6/120/2 receiving in his last game against Dallas in Week 17.
Javonte Williams over 2.5 receptions (+124, DraftKings)
Javonte Williams over 11.5 receiving yards (-108, FanDuel)
Honestly, this one looks like a Week 1 handout the books are gifting us for the opener, since Javonte is the top back for the Cowboys, and since he should be on the field for most of their passing down and hurry-up snaps. Dallas is also an 8.5 road underdog, so the gamescript should be ideal. Javonte hit 12 receiving yards in over 50% of his games last year in Denver, where he had a lot more competition for snaps, touches, and targets. The Eagles gave up the seventh-fewest receiving YPG (27.8) to RBs last year, but they were a lot stingier stopping RBs on the ground, giving up the third-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.63), the seventh-fewest rushing YPG (79.8) to RBs. Dallas’ options in the backfield are limited to Miles Sanders and rookie Jaydon Blue, which is pretty pathetic. Sanders is a veteran, so he should be a factor, but Javonte has endeared himself to head coach Brian Schottenheimer, who recently said that “he’s very physical, and he plays it with passion and really good pad level.” That sounds like a pass-protection quote, so let’s go over on both of these props.
CeeDee Lamb over 70.5 receiving yards (+125, Fanatics)
This 70.5 total is 1-2 yards less than the line on DK or FD, so I’m going with it. The Eagles last year were a slot funnel in 2024, having allowed the 2nd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing wideouts (-5.4) while ranking closer to league-average against the slot (-0.6). Technically, he will be on S Cooper DeJean at times, but Lamb will also line up outside, and he should get some reps against the weak link in the secondary, which is CB Kelee Ringo. This is a secondary that lost CBs Darius Slay, Avonte Maddox, and C. J. Gardner-Johnson, so they probably won’t be dominant to open the season. With the Cowboys 8.5 road underdogs, I’d expect Lamb to get 10+ targets, just like he did in last year’s opener. Lamb was rusty due to his holdout for that game to open 2024, but that won’t be the case this time.
TD Props
I started offering TD props here last year, and things went pretty well and we were profitable. Just keep in mind that I’m resigned to losing the majority of these, since they are usually +150 or better.
Jake Ferguson anytime TD (+280, DraftKings)
As good as the Eagles were against TEs last year, stud ILB Zack Baun can’t cover everyone, and their other two LBs, Jeremiah Trotter and Jalyx Hunt are suspect. The Eagles actually gave up 6 TDs to TEs in their final 10 games, including 20/167/3 given up in the Divisional and Championship rounds of the playoffs to Zach Ertz and Tyler Higbee/Colby Parkinson. They are relatively thin at receiver, and should put it up 40+ times as 8.5 road underdogs.
A.J. Brown anytime TD (+160, DraftKings)
I did well with Brown TD props last year, including a win on a pick in his last game on Super Bowl Sunday. The Cowboys’ secondary is in a state of flux with Trevon Diggs dealing with a knee injury, Daron Bland experimenting in the slot, and with a new starter in the lineup in Kaiir Elam, who is a former #1 pick who was a bust for the Bills. New Cowboys DC Matt Eberflus ran the second-highest rate of Cover 3 (44.5%) with the Bears last season, and Brown averaged a strong 2.83 YPRR and .29 TPRR against the coverage, plus he put up 5/109 receiving against the Cowboys with Jalen Hurts at QB, and he scored against them in the second game with Kenny Pickett at QB.
Dak Prescott anytime TD (+800, DraftKings)
This is the type of play where I could lose 5-6 in a row, and then hit once and walk away with a profit. With the Cowboys as 8.5 road underdogs, I’m expecting 40+ dropbacks for Prescott. His backfield is pretty darn bare, and both Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders are poor short-yardage runners at this point in their careers. So at +800, I can’t pass on an opportunity to potentially make a killing as Dak might be forced to push one over the stripe on his own.
Jalen Tolbert anytime TD (+600, DraftKings)
I’m digging pretty deep for my “Thursday Night Special,” but I’m feeling good about the #analysis because Dallas, as an 8.5-point road underdog, should throw the rock 40+ times, and this is a secondary that lost CBs Darius Slay, Avonte Maddox, and C. J. Gardner-Johnson. Based on alignment numbers, Tolbert should see the most of CB Kelee Ringo, whose data this week represents the fourth-best WR-CB matchup on the board with Ringo giving up a healthy .35 FP/RR. Using 2024 data, which is fair because these teams haven’t changed much from last year, Tolbert has what looks like the best schematic matchup, and he scored a TD in his last game against the Eagles in Week 17 last year. With CeeDee Lamb commanding a lot of attention and George Pickens being a handful who’ll likely need some safety help, and with Jonathan Mingo on IR, Tolbert has a real chance to get 7+ targets and to make an impact.
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