The Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season features the New York Giants hosting the Dallas Cowboys at MetLife Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to the Week 4 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
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How To Watch Cowboys vs. Giants
When: Thursday, September 26th at 8:15 pm ET
Where: MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
Channel: Prime Video
Cowboys vs. Giants Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, September 24th. Make sure you look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Cowboys -198, Giants +164
Spread: Cowboys -4.5 (-108), Giants +4.5 (-112)
Total: Over 44.5 (-108), Under 44.5 (-112)
Cowboys vs. Giants Analysis
The Cowboys were viewed as a contender to win the NFC East this season, but they’re now 1-2 and heading into a dangerous game against a division rival. Dallas still has time to figure things out, but it might be hard for Mike McCarthy’s group to do so on such a short week.
This season, the Cowboys have the worst rushing defense in the league when it comes to EPA per play allowed (0.184). Dallas has actually been significantly worse than Cincinnati, which has the second-worst mark (0.072) in the NFL. Last week, things really got out of control for this defense, as the Cowboys allowed the Ravens to rush for 274 yards on 45 carries. And it’s not like things were much better in Week 2, when the Saints rushed for 190 yards on 39 attempts.
New Dallas defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer will now be faced with a difficult decision against New York. Should the Cowboys keep things the same or really buckle down on stopping the run? The latter can be dangerous. On Monday night, we saw the Bengals go out of their way to try and slow down Brian Robinson Jr., and that ultimately resulted in quarterback Jayden Daniels torching them through the air. If Dallas does something similar, will Daniel Jones and Malik Nabers make them play?
No matter what Zimmer ultimately ends up doing, it’s hard to imagine Dallas winning in straightforward fashion right now. Not only is the team miserable when it comes to defending the run, but the Cowboys also aren’t getting much out of their running game. Dallas rushed 21 times for 68 yards against New Orleans and 16 times for 51 yards against Baltimore. This team is getting manhandled in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
The Giants have also been a lot more competitive than expected to start the 2024 season. New York got romped by Minnesota in Week 1, but that loss doesn’t look as bad today as it did then. The Giants then lost 21-18 to the Commanders in Week 2, but that was a game that everybody knows they should have won. New York scored three offensive touchdowns in that one, and Washington didn’t find the end zone once. The entire game just ended up getting messed up by an injury to kicker Graham Gano. The Giants didn’t have anybody to kick extra points or field goals, and that ended up doing them in. But New York got in the win column with an impressive performance against Cleveland last week. This is now a team that looks like it should be 2-1, and the confidence of the group is growing.
New York’s offense has been mocked by a lot of people in recent seasons, but Nabers’ ability to create separation and come down with contested catches has completely opened things up for Brian Daboll. And you can say what you want about Daboll’s time in New York, but he has proven that he is a very good offensive play caller. That’s important in a matchup like this, as Daboll will surely test the Dallas defensive line with a heavy dose of Devin Singletary. If the Cowboys can’t stop it, the Giants will lean on the ground game. But if Dallas is throwing extra bodies in the box, Daboll knows that he can trust Jones and the passing game again.
The Giants also happen to be 12-3 against the spread as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points under Daboll, and they have only lost those games by an average of 1.0 point per game. New York is also 8-4 ATS as a home underdog with Daboll on the sidelines.
Cowboys vs. Giants Player Props
Daniel Jones Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+185)
It’s a little surprising to see that you can get nearly 2-1 odds on Jones to throw for two touchdowns in this game. The 27-year-old has obviously been disappointing since being drafted by the Giants, but he has looked solid over the last two weeks. Against Washington, Jones threw for 178 yards with two touchdowns and no picks. He followed that performance up by throwing for 236 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions in Cleveland.
With Jones having thrown for at least two touchdowns in back-to-back games, it’s just hard not to take a flier on him to do it again. As previously mentioned, Dallas’ rushing defense has been a complete nightmare this season. With that in mind, there’s a pretty good chance that the Cowboys spent the entire week trying to figure that out. Well, if Dallas neglects the passing game, the team might regret it. Nabers has completely changed this Giants offense, and he has Jones looking like the player he was before tearing his ACL.
Also, it’s not like the Cowboys have been great at defending the pass either. Dallas is 14th in the league in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.024), but it has been much easier to throw on the Cowboys in 2024 than it was in 2023. They were fifth in the league in Dropback EPA per play allowed last year. This is just a much different unit with Dan Quinn now in Washington.
Cowboys vs. Giants Pick
It might be a little hard to believe in the Giants, but the Cowboys have been a mess when it comes to running the ball and stopping the run. Until Dallas gets that all sorted out, it’s going to be hard for Dak Prescott and Co. to win games comfortably. And it’ll be especially tough to do so in a road game against a suddenly-frisky NFC East rival. I’m taking the Giants +4.5 as one of my Week 4 best bets. I’ll also be sprinkling the moneyline in this one, as New York is 10-5 straight-up under Daboll as an underdog of +140 to +325.
Pick: Giants +4.5 (-105)
