Cowboys vs. Giants – Thursday Night Football Player Prop Best Bets:

I’m 13-5 on MNF and 67% so far for the TNF games, so let’s stay hot in Week 4. 2024 TNF Props Record: 8-4 (67%) Thursday Night Football Note: All props are always listed in order or priority and appeal. It’s a good matchup for all the Cowboys receivers.

 

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Ezekiel Elliott Over 26.5 rushing yards 

  • Cowboys are 5.5-point road favorites, 
  • Need to show some toughness in the trenches and with their running game, given their own issues stopping the run, and Jerry Jones passed on Derrick Henry, which is being ripped, so I can see them giving Zeke a real shot. 
  • Zeke is a bit of a Giants killer in his career with 11 TDs in 13 games
  • Ran for 9/46 – 5.1 YPC against them as a Patriot last year 
  • The Giants are allowing a generous 5.4 YPC to RBs.

Wandale Robinson Over 4.5 receptions. 

  • The Cowboys play zone at the third-highest rate (82%), and Robinson is averaging a solid 1.73 YPRR on a promising 19.1% target share against zone. 
  • Meanwhile, Malik Nabers averages -71.9% less FP/RR against zone (0.34) than man, so this is not an ideal schematic matchup for the rookie. 
  • The Cowboys can also get pressure on the QB and rank 11th in pressure rate (38.2%), and Daniel Jones averages 4.2 YPA with a 47.6% completion percentage against pressure through three weeks. 
  • I think it means he’s looking for his safety valve Robinson, who already has logged two games with 6+ catches and 8+ targets, including 7/61 receiving on 8 targets (22.9%) last week. 
  • I thought he’d be a bigger factor against the Browns, and he was, and I feel the same here. 

Jalen Tolbert Over 28.5 receiving yards 

  • Tolbert ran the same 82% of the routes as Brandin Cooks last week 
  • He was just behind the veteran in air yard share (22.3%>23.8). 
  • The Giants have played single-high coverage the 7th-most this year (60.4%), and since 2022, Tolbert commands +65.7% more targets per route run against single-high compared to two-high, and he sees a +82.6% boost to his YPRR. 
  • The Giants have allowed an NFL-high 31 receptions to receivers aligned out wide.
  • Deonte Banks
  • Jalen Tolbert – Cordale Flott or Nick McCloud, a journeyman UDFA type

Devin Singletary Over 60.5 rushing yards (-120)

  • Singletary has seen his FP rise in three straight games (19.8>15.5>9.2) 
  • Season highs in touches (20) and scrimmage yards (108) in a victory over the Browns. He posted a 70% snap share, a 50% carry share, and 44% route share. 
  • Singletary has been good for 14+ touches in every game, including 4 catches in 2-of-3 contests. 
  • The Cowboys have allowed an NFL-high 3.08 adjusted YBC/ATT and 5.4 YPC and easily the most FPG (36.5) to RBs.

Rico Dowdle Over 40.5 rushing yards (-120)

  • Last week, he beat Zeke in carries (8>3), receptions (3>1), scrimmage yards (56>12), and FPG (8.6>2.2). 
  • Giants are allowing a generous 5.4 YPC to RBs.
  • Cowboys are 5.5-point road favorites, 

Brandin Cooks Over 36.5 receiving yards (-110)

  • The Giants have played single-high coverage the 7th-most this year (60.4%). 
  • Since joining the Cowboys in 2022, Cooks sees a +57.5% increase to his TPRR (19.4%, he averages just a 12.3% TPRR against two-high in that timeframe), a +127% increase to YPRR, and a +70% increase to FP/RR.
  • Cooks has reached 50+ receiving just 3 times in 20 games with the Cowboys, but he had his in this matchup last year, posting 9/173/1 receiving in mid-November. 
  • The Giants have allowed an NFL-high 31 receptions to receivers aligned out wide.

Malik Nabers Under 70.5 receiving yards (-110)

  • Through three weeks, Malik Nabers averages -71.9% less FP/RR against zone (0.34) than against man coverage (1.22, best of any qualifying WR). 
  • He still has a fairly good 28.6% TPRR against zone (so volume should be there), but this is not an ideal schematic matchup.
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