On Thursday, December 4, the Detroit Lions host the red-hot Dallas Cowboys for some Week 14 Thursday Night Football. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 14 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Cowboys vs. Lions
When: Thursday, December 4 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)
Cowboys vs. Lions Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Tuesday, December 2. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Bills -265, Texans +215
Spread: Bills -5.5 (-115), Texans +5.5 (-105)
Total: Over 43.5 (-115), Under 43.5 (-105)
Cowboys vs. Lions Analysis
When looking at our VSiN betting splits pages, you’ll see that DraftKings Sportsbook had Detroit as a 6-point favorite back on November 25. Now, DraftKings only has the Lions as 3-point favorites. That’s also where Circa Sports has Detroit. It’s clear that Dallas has won over a lot of people these last couple of weeks. I’m one of them.
Since Quinnen Williams’ debut in Week 11, the Cowboys have an EPA per play allowed of 0.000. That’s a major improvement over the team’s season-long mark of 0.131. In fact, over the course of the entire season, a 0.000 EPA per play allowed would be good for the 15th-best mark in the NFL. Well, being in the top-half of NFL teams defensively makes Dallas a completely different football team. The Cowboys are fourth in the NFL in EPA per play (0.134). So, now that the defense is no longer undoing everything the elite offense is doing, Dallas is a major player.
As far as this matchup goes, the way the Cowboys have been playing defensively matters. They have a Rush EPA per play allowed of -0.139, which means they’ve been excellent at slowing down opposing running backs. If they can do it again here, that’ll give them a great shot at winning this one outright. Detroit’s passing game hasn’t been as good as it was under Ben Johnson, and Jared Goff likely won’t have his full group of pass-catchers. Amon-Ra St. Brown, one of the best receivers in football, hurt his ankle in a Thanksgiving Day loss to Green Bay. The Lions are also likely to be playing without Khalif Raymond, and Sam LaPorta appears to be out for the season after undergoing a back procedure. There just won’t be many players that can create separation and exploit a beatable secondary, meaning Dallas will be able to key in on stopping Detroit’s elite running backs.
Dallas is also 5-1 against the spread as an underdog under Brian Schottenheimer, and the team is 2-1-1 straight-up and 3-1 ATS when facing teams with winning records with him on the sidelines.
Cowboys vs. Lions Player Props
Lean: George Pickens Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Our OptaAI projections have Pickens finishing with 80.05 receiving yards here, meaning a small edge to the Over on his yardage total. CeeDee Lamb is still a massive part of this offense, but the attention he demands has allowed the highly-talented Pickens to do massive things on the other side of the field. Pickens comes into this game after having had at least 78 yards in seven consecutive games. He has also racked up a career-high 1,142 receiving yards already, and he’s just playing with all the confidence in the world right now. That said, if you’re looking to play a prop on the Dallas side here, I’d roll with Pickens to keep things going.
Cowboys vs. Lions Pick
I was able to find a 3.5 at a reasonable number here, but I still would have played the +3 somewhat big. I think Dallas and Detroit are on a level playing field now, and the injuries the Lions are dealing with might tilt the scales in the Cowboys’ favor. That’s why I’m also sprinkling some moneyline. Dallas has a great shot at winning this game.
Bet: Cowboys +3.5 (-120 – 1.5 units) & Cowboys ML (+150 – 0.5 units)
