Cowboys vs. Lions – Thursday Night Football Prop Best Bets from John Hansen:
CeeDee Lamb Over 82.5 receiving yards (-111, FanDuel)
It’s a great schematic matchup for both of the stud Cowboys wideouts, but I’m going with Lamb, since we’re projecting a shadow from top corner D.J. Reed on George Pickens, who was also on the injury report this week (he’s been taken off) and may not be as healthy as usual in a short week. As for Lamb, he averages an excellent 2.44 YPRR and .33 TPRR on 80 routes against man coverage, which the Lions run at the highest rate (42.8%), and Detroit gives up the 10th-most YPRR (2.07) and the fourth-most YPR (14.66) to outside receivers. With Reed often on Pickens, that puts Lamb on CB Rock Ya-Sin, who is on his fifth team in five years, so this Thursday Night Football matchup looks like a Lamb game.
Jared Goff Over 31.5 pass attempts (-120, DraftKings)
Goff has hit this number in four of his last five games, and given the shaky state of their secondary, this one should not disappoint those hoping for a shootout, since it’s an excellent spot for Dallas’ two stud WRs. Dallas’ run defense has also been very solid the last month, and they match up well schematically against Jahmyr Gibbs, so I’m confident Dak Prescott and the Cowboys will keep Goff throwing for 3-4 quarters.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 35.5 receiving yards (-135, Fanatics)
The Cowboys have held lead backs to 13.4 or fewer FP in four straight games, and Gibbs rushed for only 63 yards in this matchup last year. Gibbs got only 3/28 receiving on 5 targets against the Cowboys last season, but that’s a game the Lions won 47-9, and this one is essentially a pick ‘em game with Detroit a 3-point home favorite. Dallas allows third-most receiving YPG (44.7) to RBs, and based on the schematics, they may prevent a huge day on the ground for Gibbs, since they give up only 4.14 YPC on the zone concept runs Gibbs excels on, compared to 4.97 YPC on man/gap runs that David Montgomery excels at, so I can see Gibbs doing a little less than expected on the ground, and a little more through the air.
David Montgomery Over 33.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)
As mentioned above, Dallas has held lead backs to 13.4 or fewer FP in four straight games, and Jahmyr Gibbs posted 12/63 rushing against the Cowboys last season. Monty, however, put up 12/80/2 rushing, and it’s not a shock, since he excels on man/gap runs (whereas Gibbs is better on zone runs), and Dallas has clearly been less effective stopping those man/gap runs, giving up 4.97 YPC (8th-most) compared to 4.14 YPC on zone runs (15th-fewest). Monty has ripped off some longer runs this season, including a 14-yarder last week, and in this matchup last year, Montgomery started the game, and he ripped off runs of 16, 17, and 19 yards and had 3/28/1 rushing on their first drive.
Isaac TeSlaa Over 38.5 receiving yards (-111, DraftKings)
First of all, the odds for his anytime TD are insanely bad (for him) at +150, which is an indication that the books are aware that TeSlaa may be a thing in Week 14. He’ll have to be a thing if Amon-Ra St. Brown is out, and probably even if Amon-Ra is in, since we have the highest total for this one on the board this week, and since Dallas is very well-equipped to give the Lions all they can handle. Based on alignment numbers, he should see a lot of DaRon Bland, who is overly aggressive and vulnerable to big plays.
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