The Week 11 Monday Night Football game features the Las Vegas Raiders hosting the Dallas Cowboys in Nevada’s Allegiant Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 11 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Cowboys vs. Raiders
When: Monday, November 17 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada
Channel: ABC / ESPN
Cowboys vs. Raiders Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, November 16. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Cowboys -185, Raiders +154
Spread: Cowboys -3.5 (-105), Raiders +3.5 (-115)
Total: Over 49.5 (-112), Under 49.5 (-108)
Cowboys vs. Raiders Analysis
This Monday Night Football matchup appears to be extremely lopsided when looking at the public action. Our VSiN betting splits pages show 83% of the bets and 78% of the handle on the Cowboys at DraftKings Sportsbook. Circa isn’t all that different, with Dallas receiving 83% of the bets and 96% of the handle. However, Circa did move the Cowboys to -3 after they opened at -3.5 on November 10. That’s a sign that there’s sharp money on the Raiders. And given everything we’ve seen from Dallas’ defense this season, Vegas feels like the right side.
The Cowboys are currently 31st in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.172). The team did make some trade deadline moves, acquiring Logan Wilson and Quinnen Williams. However, it’s hard to imagine two moves doing too much for this group. Dallas is 29th in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (0.049) and 30th in Dropback EPA per play (0.252). No matter how teams want to attack the Cowboys, they’re able to do it rather easily. Williams’ presence should mean some more pressure on the opposing quarterback, taking a little stress off the secondary. However, it’s hard to imagine all of the Cowboys’ problems going away immediately. This should still be one of the bottom-10 defenses in football, and the Raiders should have plenty of success moving the ball down the field in this one.
This Vegas offense hasn’t been great this season, but facing Dallas after having 10 full days to rest and prepare should mean good things. As long as Geno Smith can take care of the football, the Raiders should put a lot of points on the board.
The Raiders defense could be the difference maker in this game. That might be a weird thing to say about such a mediocre group, but Vegas is 19th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.029). That’s a heck of a lot better than where Dallas is. So, if these two offenses take turns driving the field — which should probably be expected in a game with a total that keeps rising and rising — it’s the Raiders that should be trusted to come away with the extra stop to settle this.
Pete Carroll has also thrived in these situations throughout his coaching career. He’s 16-10 straight-up and 13-11-2 against the spread on Mondays. He’s also 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive losses, so he’s good at steadying the ship when things start going poorly. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are just 1-4 ATS as favorites this season. They’re also just 2-3 ATS on the road.
Cowboys vs. Raiders Player Props
Tre Tucker Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Our WR-CB Matchup Tool loves Tucker’s matchup with Kaiir Elam, who has a Pro Football Focus grade of 59.6 this season. Of course, Brock Bowers is the true No. 1 option in this Vegas offense, but Tucker is now the best wideout remaining with Jakobi Meyers having been shipped to Jacksonville. I know that was also true in last week’s meeting with the Broncos, with Tucker catching only two passes for 28 yards. But this is a much better matchup for him, and our OptaAI player prop projections also happen to have him going for 49.59 yards here.
Cowboys vs. Raiders Pick
I’m taking the Raiders to cover the 3.5 in this game, but I’m also sprinkling the moneyline and taking the Tucker receiving yards prop. The Cowboys have one of the most explosive offenses in football, but it’s hard to win convincingly with a miserable defense.
Bet: Raiders +3.5 (-113) & Raiders ML (+160 – 0.5 units) & Tucker Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
