Dallas Cowboys 2024 Predictions and Odds:

The Cowboys were 9-3 heading into December last season, but a lot of people saw right through that. Dallas was beating up on weaker competition, and Dak Prescott looked the part of an MVP candidate against lousy defenses. Dallas then earned a 33-13 win over the Eagles to start the month, but it was downhill from there. The team lost two of its final four regular-season games and got blown out at home by the Packers in the playoffs. 

Dallas didn’t make any splashy moves in the offseason. The team brought in linebacker Eric Kendricks, who had 79 solo tackles and 3.5 sacks for the Chargers last year. The Cowboys also reunited with running back Ezekiel Elliott. Dallas also kept most of its roster in place, which was the main priority. 

 

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The question now is whether the Cowboys can find another gear on either side of the ball. And defensively, they’ll need to do so without Dan Quinn, who is off to Washington after guiding Dallas to back-to-back seasons as a top-five scoring defense. 

Offense

Last season, the Cowboys were second in the NFL in both EPA per play and Dropback EPA per play. Dak Prescott also threw for 4,516 yards with 36 touchdowns and nine interceptions, and he had the second-highest QBR (72.7) and Passer Rating (105.9) in football. 

The offense clicked with Mike McCarthy calling plays, and another year for Prescott to play with the talented pass-catching group of CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson should mean good things. 

The problem is that Prescott hasn’t played his best football in the biggest games. The team got blown out in meetings with the 49ers and Bills, and those are the types of games in which they need to prove they can show up. Dallas has a tough mid-season schedule, so there will be plenty of those.  

Dallas’ running game also isn’t as effective as it used to be. After finishing fourth in the league in Rush EPA in 2019, the Cowboys have been outside the Top 10 the last four seasons. And losing Tyron Smith won’t make things any easier there. Of course, Dallas drafted tackle Tyler Guyton in the first round. But will he hit the ground running? 

Defense

The Cowboys finished fifth in the NFL in Defensive DVOA last season, and they did that while dealing with significant injuries. The biggest one was linebacker Leighton Vander Esch going down with a neck injury in Week 5. Vander Esch ultimately decided to walk away from football after that. But Kendricks should do a nice job of stabilizing the linebacking corps, and this is a team with talent in the secondary and the ability to get after the quarterback. 

Mike Zimmer, one of the most well-respected coaches in football, should do a good job with this group. It’s no secret that this is a passing league, and the Cowboys can be trusted to show up and adequately defend the pass. But Dallas will also defend the run in 2024. Zimmer’s teams always do. 

Outlook

I don’t think the Dallas Cowboys will do any serious damage in the postseason, but I think the Cowboys will get there. And I lean towards Dallas winning at least 11 games in doing so. I know the schedule is rather daunting, but this team has won at least 12 games in each of the past three seasons. So, the fact you can get the Cowboys to win 11 at plus-money odds is hard to pass up. McCarthy is a proven regular-season coach.

Dallas Cowboys Pick: Over 10.5 Wins

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