Determining NFL True Home Field Advantage

Determining NFL True Home Field Advantage:

It’s that time of year…the time for me to do my annual home/road field performance studies for pro football. I do this every year around this time because I believe that one of the most important and debated factors in handicapping pro football games is in determining how much weight to be given to home field advantage. The numbers have varied greatly in recent years, for various reasons from COVID to conference realignment, etc, but none of it takes away from how important it is to revisit the subject of home field advantage, and specifically, what it is worth from a quantitative perspective. 

A few of the things I set out to find when breaking down my data over the last 3-1/2 seasons in pro football were 1) Has home field advantage picked up or dropped off recently? 2) Have oddsmakers adjusted appropriately for any changes? 3) Have any specific teams at the various levels of football set themselves apart in terms of home field performance?  

In my own history of odds making, and since doing the strength ratings for VSiN, I have always found that one of the most important factors in analyzing teams’ strengths in football, or any other sport for that matter, is determining how much home field advantage to assign. In my younger days, I remember always hearing that “3 points” should be the typical HFA. It actually dropped in half when the games were played to empty or near-empty stadiums during the pandemic. I also know that there are handicappers who do it from a general sense, issuing a standard 2-3 points depending upon how much they value that particular factor. There are others, such as myself, who develop team-specific home field edges, assuming that there are naturally environments that are tougher than others across the football landscape.

Let’s face it, we almost have to do the team-specific method as bettors, because there are many reasons as to why certain teams have more definitive home field advantage than others. Among these are weather, field surface as it fits the roster, crowd capacity/enthusiasm, confidence level of a team, and perhaps even distractions available to a visiting team while there. The degree to which these things factor into play can also waiver from season to season based upon how a team is faring. For instance, in the NFL this season, the Broncos have come to benefit a lot from their home field advantage, which has led them to the best record in the league, while the league’s worst teams, such as those in New York, Tennessee, or Las Vegas, continue to demonstrate no discernible edge when playing at home. I am 100% positive that there is no way that every team’s advantage is the same. Judging home field edges as equal across the board can lead to mistakes and either missed or lost betting opportunities. I am also 100% sure that you will be convinced after I share my quantified performance results. 

To determine which teams have the best TRUE HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE in pro football, I have taken the teams’ game logs at home since the start of the 2022 season, or essentially the last 3-1/2 seasons. I compared their own average power rating in those games to their opponents’ average power rating, using my actual logged numbers during that span for every game. This margin would be considered the amount they should have won or lost by when meeting on a neutral field, or the expected margin. I then compared this amount to the actual point differential that the team accumulated in those games. Obviously, the teams that had a greater actual differential than expected differential played the “best” at home.. In the NFL, the top home field edge belonged to Detroit at +6.4, while the worst rating went to Washington at -1.7. Interestingly, those last three teams named are the exact same teams I listed in this spot a year ago. Consistency is an important part of strong home field advantage.

In general, I believe most bookmakers will assign an average of 2.0 points in the NFL. For the NFL, the average over the last 3-1/2 seasons has crept back up to around 2.0 after hovering around the 1.9 mark in last year’s study. That said, for the 2025 season, I am officially adjusting my figures to average 2.0 for TRUE Home Field Advantage in the NFL.

One important thing to note, I don’t specifically assign the home field ratings in accordance with the exact order of the True Home Field Rating, as I also give strong consideration to the straight up & ATS records, as well as the perceived difficulty of playing at a particular stadium. In recent years of this study, I have found that single games where a team won or lost big have tended to falsely impact the overall ratings. That said, AGAIN FOR 2025, I have removed the TWO BEST & TWO WORST point spread differentials for every team during the 3-1/2 year span from the calculations. These results are still noted in the SU & ATS records, but they didn’t factor into the formulas. 

Let’s take a quick look at some of the other highlights I have found from my college and pro football home field advantage study, then stay tuned, as by the end of the week, I will do the exact same exercise for road field performance. Using these pieces in conjunction with one another should give you a nice boost against the oddsmakers this weekend.

NFL Home Field Advantage Study Highlights

• Collectively, the division with the best overall TRUE home field advantage rating is the NFC North, at +3.6. That is almost 0.2 point better than the AFC North (+3.4). No other division is better than +2.5. It doesn’t seem coincidental that these two divisions are in volatile weather areas, and only Detroit & Minnesota play indoors from those divisions.
• The division with the worst collective TRUE home field advantage is the NFC South, with all four teams at +1.8 or less. The four teams in that division combine for a +1.2 TRUE HF rating. The NFC West (+1.5) is close, however.
• There are three teams that boast home field records of over 85% since the start of the 2022 NFL season. They are Buffalo (30-5), Kansas City (29-5), and Philadelphia (28-5).  Of the three, only the Chiefs are at home this week, hosting the Colts in what has become a crucial game for the defending AFC champs.
  
• The worst outright record for any NFL team at home since the start of the 2022 is owned by the Titans, at 9-20. Arizona (10-20), Carolina (11-19), & New England (11-19) have also struggled. The Cardinals and Titans host games on Sunday.
  
• There are four teams that have compiled ATS records of better than 60% in the NFL at home since the start of the 2022 season, and strangely, they are all northern teams. They are Detroit (21-10 ATS), Cleveland (18-10 ATS), Philadelphia (20-12 ATS), and Pittsburgh (18-11 ATS). Jacksonville (60%) and the Chargers (59%) have also been good covers at home.  Of the group, only Detroit is at home this week, hosting the Giants.
  
• There have been four NFL teams to go under 40% ATS over the last 3-1/2 seasons at home. They are Tampa Bay (11-20 ATS), New England (10-18 ATS), New Orleans (10-18 ATS), and Tennessee (10-17 ATS). Of these, the Titans (+13.5) versus Seattle, and New Orleans (-1.5) versus Atlanta are at home on Sunday.
  
• The four teams that have played to the average biggest point spreads at home are Buffalo (-7.8), Philadelphia (-6.7), Kansas City (-6.4), & San Francisco (-6.2). The Chiefs host the Colts, and the 49ers welcome Carolina to Frisco on Monday.
  
• Two teams have been worse than 3-point underdogs at home in recent seasons of the NFL and they are the Giants (+3.9), and Carolina (+3.1). Both teams are big road dogs this week. The Panthers return home next weekend.
• There have been five NFL teams that have averaged at least 27 PPG in their graded home games over the last 3-1/2 seasons, they are:

DETROIT – 32.2 PPG
BUFFALO – 30.5
DALLAS – 29.0
PHILADELPHIA – 28.2
CINCINNATI – 28.2

• There have been four teams in pro football that have allowed fewer than 18 PPG in graded home games since the start of the 2022 season. That list includes:

DENVER – 17.3 PPG
KANSAS CITY – 17.7
GREEN BAY – 17.8
CLEVELAND – 17.9

• The only two teams that have outscored opponents by more than 9.0 PPG at home since 2022 are Buffalo (+11.6 PPG), Detroit (+9.2) & Philadelphia (+9.1).
• Using my formula comparing how much teams have won by at home as compared to how much they were supposed to win by based upon average power ratings, the top teams for TRUE HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE in the NFL over the last 3-1/2 seasons have been:

1. DETROIT +6.4
2. BUFFALO +5.3
3. PHILADELPHIA +4.3
4. BALTIMORE +4.2
5. DENVER +4.1

Of those five teams, both Detroit & Baltimore are heavy favorites on Sunday at home.

• The teams with the worst TRUE HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE ratings in all of pro football based upon their home performances over the last 3-1/2 seasons have been:

1. WASHINGTON -1.7
2. TENNESSEE -0.4
3. NEW ENGLAND -0.1
4. NY GIANTS +0
5. CAROLINA +0

Concerning the games for this weekend, only Tennessee is at home, hosting Seattle.

You will find the entire list of all 32 NFL teams and their home field performance on the chart below. They are sorted in order of TRUE HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE rating.

VIEW NFL TRUE HOME FIELD CHART HERE