Determining NFL True Road Field Advantage

Determining NFL True Road Field Advantage:

After revealing my annual True Home Field Advantage Ratings in pro football earlier this week, I now move on to analyzing the road performance levels of teams. 

Reiterating what I stated earlier this week regarding the importance of understanding how to assign home and road field points in football, anyone who is still assigning the base 2 to 3 points for home field for every game at either level is making a gargantuan mistake. This not only leads to errors in handicapping individual games on any given week, but it also compounds itself in the building of team power ratings, which take into account schedule strength and where a team has played its games. Because of this risk, my own experience on both sides of the counter has led me to build and maintain team-specific home and road field ratings. These are built into the formulas I use to calculate the Power, Effective Strength, and Bettors Ratings in PSW and on VSiN.com.

I explained the many reasons why certain teams have more definitive home-field advantage than others. The same can be said for teams’ performance levels on the road. In my opinion, coaching/preparation level is the leading factor for teams that play best on the road. These teams typically have solid defenses and reliable quarterback play. The other factor that might not be as clearly defined, I feel that a lot of teams that don’t enjoy a massive home-field edge in atmosphere have a tendency to play better on the road, as their performance level is more consistent across the board, and not as influenced by game location. Perhaps having more veteran leadership on a team also plays an important role.

To determine which teams hold the best true road field performance levels in pro football, I have taken the teams’ logs in true road games since the start of the 2022 season, or essentially the last 3-1/2 seasons. I compared their own average power rating in those games to their opponents’ average power rating, using my actual logged numbers during that span for every game. This margin would be considered the amount they should have won or lost by when meeting on a neutral field, or the expected margin. I then compared this amount to the actual point differential that the team accumulated in those games. Obviously, the teams that had a greater actual differential than expected differential played the “best” on the road. In the NFL, the top road field performance belonged to Seattle at +2.1, while the worst rating went to Cleveland at -7.5.

The numbers I showed earlier in the week suggest the actual true home-field advantage in the NFL is 2.0. As I indicated then, the home-field advantage seems to be trending back upward since it bottomed out in 2020 amid the Covid-19 pandemic and empty stadiums. If you’re using numbers larger or smaller than these, they are probably impacting your betting results negatively, as you’re not getting a true gauge for what it means to play games at home or away.

One important thing to note, I don’t specifically assign the road field ratings in accordance with the order of the True Road Performance numbers you’ll see below on the charts, as I also give strong consideration to the straight-up and ATS records. Otherwise, single games where a team won or lost big can falsely impact the overall ratings. In pro football, this same 1.0 honor belongs to Seattle & Detroit.

Keep in mind, as you interpret the results, as I noted last week in the home study, I have removed the two best and worst point spread losses for every team during the 3-½-year span from the calculations. These results are still noted in the SU and ATS records, but they didn’t factor into the formulas or point/line averages.

Let’s take a quick look at some of the other highlights I have found from my pro football road field performance study.

NFL Road Field Performance Study Highlights

• Collectively, the division with the best overall TRUE Road Performance rating is the NFC West, at -0.9. That is the only division (or conference in college) with a rating of better than -1.5. In other words, the NFC West has truly separated itself in its ability to play well on the road.
  
• The divisions with the worst collective TRUE Road Performance are the AFC South (-3.2) & NFC South (-3.2), with four of the eight teams with ratings at or worse than -5.0.
  
• There are just two NFL teams that have lost fewer than 10 true road games over the last 3-1/2 seasons, and those are last year’s Super Bowl combatants, Kansas City & Philadelphia. The Chiefs have a league-best 23-9 mark in their last 32 road games while the Eagles are next best at 22-9. KC’s next road game is at Dallas on Thanksgiving, while the Eagles are in Dallas on Sunday. The next best performing team in terms of road record is also playing on the road this week, as Seattle (19-10) travels to Tennessee on Sunday.
  
• The worst outright record for any pro football team on the road since the start of the 2022 season is shared by Carolina and the LA Chargers, at 7-24. Cleveland is only slightly better in that time span, at 7-23. Atlanta is next in line, 7-22. Of those four teams, the Panthers, Browns, and Falcons are all on the road this weekend.
  
• There are five teams that have compiled ATS records better than 60% in the NFL on the road since the start of the 2022 season and they are Detroit (23-9 ATS), Baltimore (20-12 ATS), Seattle (17-10 ATS), Minnesota (14-9 ATS), and Las Vegas (17-11 ATS).  No other teams have gone 58% or better. The Seahawks and Vikings have road games on Sunday.
  
• There have been four NFL teams to go under 40% ATS over the last 3-1/2 seasons on the road. They are Cleveland (7-22 ATS), Atlanta (10-18 ATS), New Orleans (11-18 ATS), and Tennessee (12-19 ATS). The Browns (at Las Vegas) and Falcons (at New Orleans) are on the road this coming Sunday.
  
• The four teams that have played to the average biggest point spreads on the road in recent seasons are Kansas City (-4.3), followed by San Francisco (-3.6), Philadelphia (-3.5) and Buffalo (-3.1).
  
• Four teams have been worse than 5-point underdogs on average in road games in recent seasons of pro football and the NY Giants (+6.8), Carolina (+6.1), Chicago (+5.3), and Tennessee (+5.1).
  
• There have been three NFL teams that have averaged more than 25 PPG in their road games over the last 3-1/2 seasons, they are:

DETROIT – 25.8 PPG
BUFFALO – 25.7
BALTIMORE – 25.1

• There have been four teams in pro football that have allowed 21 PPG or fewer in road games since the start of the 2022 season. That list includes:
  
• KANSAS CITY – 19.8 PPG
• LA RAMS – 20.2
• BALTIMORE – 20.6
• PHILADELPHIA – 20.7
  
  The only three teams that have outscored opponents by 4 PPG or more on the road since 2022 are Kansas City (+5.0), Baltimore (+4.5), and Philadelphia (+4.1). There is a bit of a misconception about all three of these teams and how tough they are playing at what are seemingly difficult home environments. The truth is that over the last 3-1/2 seasons, they have played arguably better on the road.
  
• Using my formula comparing how much teams have won on the road as compared to how much they were supposed to win by based upon average power ratings, the top teams for true road performance in pro football over the last 3-1/2 seasons have been:

1. Seattle +2.1
2. Baltimore +0.9
3. Tampa Bay +0.8
4. Green Bay +0.2

Of those four teams, the Seahawks are on the road this week at Tennessee, while Tampa Bay has a tough tilt at the LA Rams.

• The teams with the worst true road performance ratings in all of the NFL based upon their road statistics over the last 3-1/2 seasons have been:

1. Cleveland -7.5
2. Carolina -6.0
3. Atlanta -5.3
4. NY Jets -5.3
5. Indianapolis -5.1
   

My timing is virtually perfect for this list as all five teams are playing road games this weekend. I have best bets lined up against three of them.

You will find the entire list of all 32 NFL teams and their road performance on the chart below. They are sorted in order of true road performance rating.

VIEW NFL TRUE ROAD FIELD ADVANTAGE CHART HERE