Determining the top Super Bowl contenders through their championship traits:
One of my favorite things I like to do when looking at any type of championship futures wagers in any sport is to compare the resumes of past championship-type teams with the current ones. While the actual teams change, what makes a team championship-level stays pretty consistent. Hopefully, you’ve seen my analysis of this type before, I assume most notably for NCAA basketball, as it has been most successful in that particular spot. I have made a nice return betting the findings in recent years. I plan to come out with my mid-season CBB title predictions piece next week, so watch for that. For now, the conclusion of the NFL’s regular season is here, and as such, I’m going to update my analysis on the shared traits of past Super Bowl teams in order to use those traits to compare to our current crop of NFL title hopefuls.
The traits I took were snapshots of the last 48 Super Bowl participating teams at the conclusion of the regular season, and again, the thought is that I assume that although the teams involved may change, what it takes to be a champion in the NFL, for the most part, does not. This can help a great deal for bettors looking for value in making futures wagers, and I suppose to a lesser degree, those betting game lines and totals as well. With that in mind, I share the list of qualifications and the chart detailing the 14 resumes of our 2026 playoff teams.
When I look for comparisons of these past championship teams, I look at all kinds of varying characteristics, from strength ratings to momentum to raw statistics. Naturally, the current futures odds at the various sportsbooks reveal the feelings of the experts as to which teams they feel have the best shot to win, but these aren’t always resume built; more often, they are formed simply from won-lost records, recent games, path to the title, or even from simply where the most money is coming in. I feel that my method for finding shared characteristics from past success stories provides bettors with more concrete evidence from which to base their wagers.
So, let’s take a look at some of the key statistical characteristics each team boasts now in comparison to those of the Super Bowl teams of the last 24 years. Just a word of caution: looking back at my charts from the last two years, it didn’t do nearly as well as it has in years prior when I have utilized this methodology. In fact, while Philadelphia did tie for first in marks in both overall and the NFC, Kansas City ranked fourth from the bottom on the chart. Not surprisingly, the Eagles had their way with the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Typically, I have found that this analysis pegs at least one of the conference’s top teams accurately, and it rarely goes below position #4 or so. The most successful recent projection came in 2023, when the Super Bowl participants ranked #2 & #4 on this chart. Hopefully, things rebound back to that level of performance this year.
You will see that the stats that I have chosen to use are mostly “body of work” type of figures, in other words, they encompass the entire regular season for teams. That said, my Bettors Ratings and Momentum Ratings do reflect a more recent status of teams. This is a list of the 27 statistical/strength characteristics I will be using to qualify this year’s teams for their worthiness of winning a Super Bowl title next month.
Steve Makinen’s Power Rating
Steve Makinen’s Effective Strength Indicator
Steve Makinen’s Bettors’ Rating
Steve Makinen’s Momentum Ratings
Won-Lost Record
ATS Won-Lost Record
Offensive PPG
Offensive Rushing Yards per Game
Offensive Rushing Yards per Attempt
Offensive Passing Yards per Game
Offensive Passing Yards per Attempt
Offensive Total Yards per Game
Total Offensive Yards per Play
Offensive Third Down Conversion Percentage
Defensive PPG
Defensive Rushing Yards per Game
Defensive Rushing Yards per Attempt
Defensive Passing Yards per Game
Defensive Passing Yards per Attempt
Defensive Total Yards per Game
Total Defensive Yards per Play
Defensive Third Down Conversion Percentage
Sacks
Scoring Differential
Yards per Play Differential
Turnover Differential
Average Time of Possession
In general, whenever I do this type of exercise, I’m looking for teams that share traits with 80% or more of the sample group I’m studying. So, to find separations in the teams’ stats/ranks among the last 46 Super Bowl participants, I’m looking for about 37 teams to fit the bill. You will find the qualifying teams for each trait on the chart below. Of the Super Bowl teams since 2001, AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE REGULAR SEASON, approximately 80% of them:
- Had a Steve Makinen Power Rating of 28 or higher
- Had a Steve Makinen Effective Strength Indicator of +4.0 or higher
- Had a Steve Makinen Bettors’ Rating of -6.0 or better
- Had a Steve Makinen’s Momentum Rating of +6.0 or better
- Won 11 games or more (>=68.%)
- Won 9 games or more ATS (>=56%)
- Scored 24 PPG or more on offense
- Rushed for >=100 YPG
- Averaged 4.0 yards or more per rushing attempt
- Passed for >=210 YPG
- Averaged 7.0 yards or more per passing attempt
- Gained >=350 total yards per game offensively
- Averaged >=5.5 yards per play or more on offense
- Converted 37% of 3rd down opportunities on offense
- Allowed 22 PPG or fewer on defense
- Allowed <=120 rushing yards per game
- Allowed 4.5 yards or fewer per rushing attempt
- Allowed <=238 or fewer passing yards per game
- Allowed 6.6 yards or fewer per passing attempt
- Allowed <=350 total yards per game defensively
- Allowed 5.6 yards per play or fewer on defense
- Yielded opponents to 39% or less on 3rd down conversions
- Recorded 2.5 sacks per game or more
- Outscored opponents by 6.8 PPG or more
- Outgained opponents by 0.3 yards per play or more
- Had turnover differential of +6 or more (+0.38)
- Averaged more than 30 minutes time of possession
Qualifying each of the 14 NFL teams that have reached the playoffs this season, we come up with this chart, with marks indicating they meet the criteria for that statistic:
VIEW NFL SHARED SUPER BOWL TRAITS CHART HERE
Theoretically, the more marks, the more qualified that team’s resume would figure to be to make a run at the Super Bowl in February. The way I figure it, the teams with the most shared characteristics are the strongest, hottest, and most balanced teams in the league. For 2026, that would put the Los Angeles Rams vs. New England as the Super Bowl 60 matchup at this time. The Rams boast a perfect score of 27 for NFC honors, while New England leads the AFC with a score of 24. Seattle (25) and Jacksonville (22) are the runners-up in the NFC and AFC, respectively. There is a next group of four teams that score 22. Of note, the Rams’ perfect score of 27 is the first such score since two years ago, when Dallas achieved that mark. The Cowboys went on to lose at home to Green Bay in Wild-Card weekend, so the perfect score is no guarantee of success.
Interestingly, for the Wild-Card weekend, four of the six host teams are ranked among the bottom five on the chart. If you’re looking at the chart and thinking about the opening weekend matchups, the biggest mismatch figures to be the Rams (27) vs. Panthers (7). The 10-point road favorite spread validates the degree of statistical mismatch. The Patriots (24) vs. Chargers (16) is also significant, without the big point spread attached. In addition to the Rams, the other road teams to be at least equal to their home opponent are Houston, San Francisco, and Green Bay. Additionally, the Jaguars are home dogs against the Bills despite a higher overall shared championship traits score.
It should be a great month of playoff football. Hopefully, this analysis helps you score a futures wager or two.
