The final game on the Thanksgiving Day slate for the 2024 NFL season features the Green Bay Packers hosting the Miami Dolphins at Lambeau Field. We’ll be diving into all of the big standalone games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 13 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.

MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!

 

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How To Watch Dolphins vs. Packers

When: Thursday, November 28th at 8:20 pm ET

Where: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin

Channel: NBC/Peacock

Dolphins vs. Packers Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, November 26th. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Packers -175, Dolphins +145

Spread: Packers -3.5 (-105), Dolphins +3.5 (-115)

Total: Over 47 (-108), Under 47 (-112)

Dolphins vs. Packers Analysis

While all the talk has been about how good the Dolphins offense has been since Tua Tagovailoa returned, Miami is fifth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.134) over the last three weeks. So, while it’s nice the Dolphins are fourth in the league in Dropback EPA per play (0.338) since Tagovailoa returned to action, the defense has also been rejuvenated. This is a team that is just 11th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.033) over the course of the entire season, so this has been a significant jump. And overall, it’s the defense that makes me believe that Miami can go on the road and beat Green Bay in a cold-weather game. However, you might as well take the 3.5 in case it ends up being a one-possession game late.

I know Miami has just one win in the last 32 years when it’s 23 degrees or colder. Everybody on the planet is talking about it. However, this year’s group is built different. Miami has a legit run defense, so the team likely won’t be bullied by Josh Jacobs and the Green Bay running game. And while the Dolphins Rush EPA per play (-0.252) on offense is abysmal, De’Von Achane and the rest of Miami’s backs are capable of picking up some chunk yardage. Realistically, a lot of the team’s rushing numbers are skewed because of how easy it was for defenses to load up the box when Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle and Tyler Huntley were under center. Don’t be surprised if Miami gets the ground game going down the stretch, and don’t get caught off guard by the Dolphins looking like a much better cold-weather football team this year.

Miami emphasized building a tougher team throughout the offseason, and this is the Dolphins’ chance to show that they’re capable of grinding out playoff-style wins. Miami also needs this game a lot more than Green Bay does, as the Dolphins have work to do in order to get back into the AFC playoff picture.

I’m just not sure the Packers are the better team on either side of the ball here. So, while Jordan Love and the rest of this Green Bay team are going to be more comfortable with the conditions, I’d be pretty surprised if Miami doesn’t show up ready.

Dolphins vs. Packers Player Props

Jonnu Smith Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Considering Tagovailoa hasn’t been great in cold weather throughout his career, I’d expect some quick designer throws to get the ball to playmakers in space. That’s a Mike McDaniel special. Well, Smith would be a great target on plays like that. Smith is very, very fast for a tight end, so he can pick up big yardage when he catches the ball with any green in front of him.

Tagovailoa has also been finding him a little further down the field, making a deep play that puts a big dent in this number possible. He’s a bit of an afterthought for opposing defenses, as this Dolphins team is loaded with offensive weapons. That’s part of the reason why Smith has 15 catches for 188 yards and three scores over the last two weeks. He has also had at least 43 yards in four consecutive games, so asking him to Over this number isn’t unrealistic.

I just don’t see Smith being a no-show in this game, so I’m going Over 42.5 receiving yards. He has gone Over this number in seven of his last 10 games.

Dolphins vs. Packers Pick

All of the trends in the world favor the Packers here, but that’s just allowing us to get a good price on a Dolphins team that is better on both sides of the ball. Miami is good enough to win this game outright, and that’s how I think this one will play out. However, you might as well grab +3.5 as long as it’s out there. It’s good insurance if this is a close game.

Bet: Dolphins +3.5 (-115)

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