Early AFC, NFC Championship Game Player Props from Mike Somich:

And then there were four! One of the beautiful parts about fewer games being played is lines are released much earlier. We are five days away from the games, but we already have prop markets up, which means if you are looking for Overs on props, now is the time. Let’s take a look at a couple of the markets for the AFC and NFC Championship Games.

 

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Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 47.5)

This game has seen action right from the jump. It opened at Eagles -6 and was bet down to Eagles -4.5. I bet the -4.5 on Sunday, Matt Brown and I both discussed this game at length on “Ready, Set, Bet” on Sunday and both came to the same conclusion. Now that we are back at Eagles -6, I still lean to that side, but there is not as much of an edge at -6 as -4.5. If we get back to Eagles -5.5, I would be interested in jumping in if I did not have an Eagles ticket.

From a props standpoint, last week we played Matthew Stafford -150 more passing yards than Jalen Hurts. That came home easy, but this week the juice has been adjusted out to -235 against with Hurts facing Commanders rookie Jayden Daniels. In Hurts’ four playoff wins, the most yards he has passed for is 151. His current passing line is 184.5 yards. I lean Under but do not want to put a play in on the Under at this point. Daniels’ number is 224.5, a 40-yard difference. The Eagles’ game plan is going to be to run, run and run some more, so let’s get a ticket in on Daniels -40.5 passing yards versus Hurts now (available on DK -115).

When looking at receiving yards, I would look Under on most Eagles, but that would wait for Sunday. The Commanders have an interesting Over option in running back Austin Ekeler. He played in only one of the two games versus the Eagles during the regular season and in that game, Ekeler was the leading receiver with eight catches on nine targets. We have seen his usage tick up since he returned from injury and I expect that to continue. Let’s play Ekeler over 25.5 receiving yards.

Rushing props will be on the rise all week. If you want to play Overs on Hurts, Saquon Barkley or Daniels do it now as all should rise before the game. Barkley is now at 130.5 rush yards, a number he has gone over in both previous matchups. The number is too high for me but will be a popular play all week.

Early NFC Championship Game Props: Jayden Daniels -40.5 passing yards vs. Jalen Hurts
Austin Ekeler Over 25.5 receiving yards

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 47.5)

I knew I was betting on the Chiefs from the jump in this game. I have Kansas City as just shy of a three-point favorite here and I knew the line was never going get close to that. I am not going go to crazy backing up the truck on this game, which has a high range of outcomes. At their implied best, the Chiefs are the better team. The question is which version of the Chiefs will we get? Even after three weeks off, the offense was not close to my expectations against the Texans. People consistently reference Andy Reid holding back the good plays, well, it is time to bust them out.

I find both teams difficult to play in the prop market. Both have lots of targets in the passing game, which makes it tough to key in on players. Khalil Shakir and Travis Kelce are clearly the top targets, but in a game with variance, I want to find a price. Let’s go to the race-to-40-yards market. Kansas City has given up the most yards allowed to tight ends in the NFL this season. Dalton Kincaid is +1400 to be the first to 40 yards receiving in the game.

The rush market here is tough as well. Josh Allen and James Cook are currently the only two listed for the Bills and both are correctly lined against a stout Chiefs defense. Allen’s attempts are the most interesting, but on Sunday, he eclipsed his number only because of kneeldowns.

On the Chiefs, I am most interested in Xavier Worthy. He is sitting at 3.5 rush yards. In 18 games this season, he has at least one run in 14 of those games and has gone Over the 3.5 mark in 12 of those games. Let’s play Worthy Over 3.5 rushing yards.

Early AFC Championship Game Props: Dalton Kincaid first to 40 receiving yards
Xavier Worthy Over 3.5 rushing yards

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