Early NFL Divisional Round Best Bets from Mike Somich:

We are down to eight teams in the NFL playoffs after a less-than-wild wild-card weekend, but it led to an absolute banger of a weekend in the divisional round. Here are a couple of my early plays.  

 

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Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-8, 42)

The first game of the weekend features a rematch of a late-season game that resulted in a Chiefs 27-19 victory.

The closing line that day was Chiefs -3.5, so to get to Chiefs -8, you must make quite a few jumps here. Yes, the Chiefs have been upgraded since and the home field in the playoffs is slightly more critical, but two additional points can help get to or past 8. First, the Chiefs get a huge upgrade in the secondary with the return of cornerback Jaylen Watson. With him in the lineup in Weeks 1-7, this was a top-eight defense against the pass. Without him, it was a bottom-eight pass defense. His return not only improves the CB2 position, but it allows coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to change the defensive style, including more disguised blitzes and alleviating pressure on the safeties.

Offensively, who knows what we will get from the Chiefs? We have not seen this Kansas City attack with Marquise Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce all consistently getting run. As recently as their holiday game in Pittsburgh, the one consistent player on the field was Worthy, but with a grab bag of secondary pieces. With two weeks to prepare, I have no clue what form of attack we will get, but with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes at the helm, I expect it to be positive.

The Texans offense was having success against the Chiefs defense before receiver Tank Dell exited the game with an injury. His loss, compounded with Stefon Diggs missing, will make it difficult for the Texans to consistently move the ball against this upgraded Chiefs secondary. The Texans were also able to get running back Joe Mixon going sparingly in the first meeting. 

When you consider all of that, an eight-point spread seems right. I made it 8.5, so I understand backing the Chiefs, but I like the Under more. While the revamped Chiefs lineup makes them more dangerous offensively, I still do not expect them to be overly explosive.

Make sure you shop this around. As I write this, 42.5 is available at DraftKings, with multiple 42s and some 41.5.

NFL Divisional Best Bet: Under 42

Baltimore Ravens (-1.5, 51.5) vs. Buffalo Bills

Welcome to the main course this weekend! After opening this game at Bills -1.5, consistent Ravens money flipped the favorite, which is in line with most people’s power ratings. I have the Ravens two points higher than Bills, which would make this game pick-’em in a normal situation, but the divisional round of the playoffs is not normal.

When diving into both teams, there were few weaknesses. The Ravens’ secondary gave up lots of big plays early in the season, but they have plugged those gaps in the second half of the season.

The Bills’ main weakness has been defending against the run. Their offense has covered it up multiple times by simply racing out to a lead, but what will happen in a close game?

These teams pushed their opponents around in the first round, and both will try to do so again. The Ravens have a better chance to have success with that plan than the Bills do with that game plan and the better defense. Let’s take a shot with the road team.

NFL Divisional Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens -1.5

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