Week 1 of the NFL regular season is finally here. Let’s take a look at where early smart money is leaning using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4, 42)

This line opened with the Saints listed as a 5-point home favorite. The public is happy to fade Bryce Young and lay the short spread with New Orleans at home. However, despite receiving 58% of spread bets we’ve seen the Saints fall from -5 to -4. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Panthers, as the line is moving in their favor despite being the unpopular side. Carolina is only receiving 42% of spread bets but a whopping 80% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in their favor. Week 1 road dogs are 46-29 ATS (61%) with a 19% ROI since 2016. Week 1 divisional dogs are 30-14 ATS (68%) with a 31% ROI since 2016. Carolina also has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (42), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. Pros have also hit the over, raising the total from 40.5 to 42. The over is receiving 38% of bets but 61% of dollars, a notable sharp contrarian over split.

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-4, 44.5)

This line opened with the Bears listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the points with Chicago, who revamped their offensive roster with first round picks Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze. However, despite receiving 57% of spread bets we’ve seen Chicago fall from -4.5 to -4. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the Titans, with pros grabbing the points with Tennessee as an unpopular road dog. Some shops are juicing up the Titans +4 to -115, signaling a possible further move in Tennessee’s favor to +3.5. Week 1 dogs are 71-53 ATS (57%) with an 11% ROI since 2016. When both teams who missed the playoffs the previous year face off in Week 1, the dog is 29-18 ATS (62%) with a 19% ROI since 2016. Shawn Smith, the lead ref, is 59% ATS to the road team, historically. Wiseguys are also leaning over, as the total has ticked up from 43.5 to 44.5. The over is receiving only 36% of bets but 54% of dollars, a sharp contrarian over discrepancy.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 44)

The Buccaneers opened as a 4-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with the Bucs. However, despite receiving 58% of spread bets we’ve seen Tampa Bay fall from -4 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Commanders, as the line is moving in their direction despite a majority of bets backing Tampa Bay at home. Washington is only receiving 42% of spread bets but 48% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. Week 1 road dogs are 46-29 ATS (61%) with a 19% ROI since 2016. Week 1 dogs who missed the playoffs the previous year are 54-39 ATS (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2016. Those looking to hold their nose and back the Commanders would be wise to search for a hook, as some shops are flirting with some buyback to +3.5. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, is 58% ATS to the road team, historically. Pros have also hit the over, raising the total from 41.5 to 44. The over is receiving only 47% of bets but a whopping 80% of money, a notable sharp contrarian over split.

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 40.5)

This line opened with the Cowboys listed as a 1-point road favorite. The public is all over Dallas in a coin-flip game. However, despite the Cowboys receiving 68% of spread bets we’ve seen this line move heavily in favor of the Browns (+1 to -2.5). Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on Cleveland. The Browns are only receiving 32% of spread bets but 42% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Cleveland has value as a rare contrarian favorite in a “fade the trendy dog” situational spot, especially in the most heavily bet game in the 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday window. Those looking to follow the sharp Browns move but wary of laying the points in what may be a close game could elect to play Cleveland on the moneyline instead at -140. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game here, as the total has dipped from 44 to 41. The under is receiving 42% of bets but 70% of money, a massive sharp contrarian under discrepancy. The forecast calls for low 60s with 10-15 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or mroe the under is 243-180 (57%) with an 11% ROI since 2016.

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