The long wait is over and Week 1 of the NFL regular season is finally here. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of games using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 38.5) at New York Jets
The Steelers finished 10-7 last season, making the playoffs and then falling to the Ravens 28-14 in the Wild Card round. Oddsmakers expect another winning season from Mike Tomlin, as Pittsburgh’s win total sits at 8.5 with the over juiced to -120 at BetMGM. Meanwhile, the Jets went 5-12 last year and their win total for this season is 6.5 with the under juiced to -145.
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 2.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 70% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Steelers.
However, despite this lopsided betting in favor of Pittsburgh, this line has remained relatively static, with most books remaining at Steelers -2.5 while others have gone to Steelers -3. However, the books at Steelers -3 are juicing up the Jets side (+3 at -115 or -120). This indicates a sharp line freeze on the Jets +3, with oddsmakers reluctant to move the number further toward the popular Steelers side for fear of giving out a better price to contrarian New York backers.
The Jets are one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the week, as they are only receiving 30% of spread bets. Those looking to go contrarian and back New York would be wise to shop around for the key number of +3. New York would also be an ideal teaser candidate (+2.5 to +8.5), which passes through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
Week 1 dogs are 78-62 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2016. Week 1 dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Jets here, are 59-45 ATS (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2016.
New York has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (38.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 39.5 to 38.5. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 52% of bets but 79% of dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of a lower scoring game.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-6, 45.5)
The Giants went a disappointing 3-14 last season and oddsmakers expect New York to be a bit better this year as their win total sits at 5.5 with the over juiced to -120. On the other hand, the Commanders are coming off an impressive 12-5 campaign in which Washington reached the NFC title game, losing to the Eagles 55-23.
This line opened with Washington listed as a 7.5-point home favorite.
The public isn’t worried about this big spread and 63% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Commanders.
However, despite receiving nearly two-thirds of tickets we’ve seen Washington fall from -7.5 to -6, with some shops even touching -5.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on New York, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, the Giants are receiving 37% of spread bets and 48% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Giants are taking in 45% of spread bets and a whopping 92% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the road dog plus the points.
Week 1 road dogs are 52-36 ATS (59%) with a 14% ROI since 2016. Week 1 divisional dogs are 31-16 ATS (66%) with a 26% ROI since 2016. Russell Wilson is 44-27 ATS (62%) with a 20% ROI as a dog in his career.
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5, 47.5) at Cleveland Browns
The Bengals went 9-8 last season, narrowly missing the postseason. This year, Cincinnati’s win total sits at 9.5 with the over juiced slightly to -115. Meanwhile, the Browns finished 3-14 last year and their win total is set at 5.5 this season with the under juiced to -150.
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 6-point road favorite.
The public expects the Bengals to easily win by a touchdown or more and 77% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Cincinnati.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the Bengals fall from -6 to -5.5 and even -5 at some shops. Why would the oddsmakers make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already pounding the Bengals to begin with? Because respected smart money has taken the points with the Browns, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the home dog.
The Browns are the top contrarian play of Week 1 as they are only receiving 23% of spread bets at DraftKings.
However, at Circa the Bengals are taking in 33% of spread bets but a whopping 87% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of Vegas smart money backing the unpopular home dog plus the points.
Week 1 divisional dogs are 31-16 ATS (66%) with a 26% ROI since 2016. When both teams missed the playoffs the previous season, as is the case here, the Week 1 dog is 31-22 ATS (59%) with a 13% ROI since 2016.
Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total from 46 to 47.5. At DraftKings, the over is taking in 61% of bets and 70% of dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy in favor of a higher scoring game.
