Early NFL Week 10 Best Bets and Predictions from Mike Somich:

Another NFL week in the books and favorites came through in a big way again. Favorites finished 14-1 outright and 10-5 ATS after the Chiefs won but did not cover on Monday night.

This can be one of the more difficult weeks to handicap because of the moving parts at the trade deadline, but it’s important to note that it will take one or more weeks for each of these pieces to fully fit into the puzzle of their new teams. Offensive players will struggle more out of the gate and likely get fewer snaps than defensive players since you have to adjust to a new system and teammates. 

 

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DeAndre Hopkins is a great case study. In his first game with the Chiefs, he was targeted three times for 29 yards. Week 2, nine targets, 86 yards and two touchdowns. When teams add players, I will make a slight to no adjustment in the first week after the trade with upgrades the following weeks based on play.

Now let’s look at the biggest two power rankings adjustments I made from the games this week:

Move them up: Arizona Cardinals        

As you look back over this Cardinals schedule, one thing jumps out. No easy games. They got the Tua Tagovailoa version of the Dolphins two weeks ago and the only other “soft” spot on the early schedule was the Commanders, which sure does not seem soft looking back now. They have been inconsistent on the offensive side of the ball at times, but when they are clicking, they have an above-average offense.

The defense, which I considered bottom five in the NFL heading into the season has played better than expected. Much like last year, this team is playing better than the talent on paper.

The schedule also gets much easier now with the Patriots, Panthers and Jets all ahead.

Move them down: Chicago Bears

The Cowboys got the largest downgrade, but that was injury-related. The Bears, on the other hand, have played their way into a downgrade.

Simply put, the offense is not working. A Cardinals team that could not generate any pass rush heading into this game was all over quarterback Caleb Williams and he did not handle the pressure well. I do not see the offensive line improving and I have seen enough of Williams to downgrade him again. The offensive scheme is not helping either. There are just too many issues for an offense that had seemed to turn the corner, but now those efforts look like they were simply benefiting from terrible defenses, not better offensive play.

Early Week 10 NFL Best Bet:

Sunday was a busy show on “Ready, Set, Bet!” Matt and I put in more early wagers than any week this far in the NFL. I locked in five separate plays, including some dog plays on Denver +9.5 and New England +7.

With the numbers still on the board, let’s look to the Over on “Sunday Night Football.” The Texans could get Nico Collins back, which would supercharge the offense. Detroit’s defense has given up close to 1,200 yards in its last three games, so the Texans should have success.

The Lions’ offense has been rolling and should keep rolling with the return of wide receiver Jameson Williams and a solid offensive line that can stifle the Texans’ pass rush.

Week 10 NFL Best Bet: Lions-Texans Over 49.5

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