Early NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions from the T Shoe Index:

I posted on X Sunday evening how frustratingly streaky my NFL betting has been so far this year. Started the season red hot, and have essentially see-sawed my way between bloodbaths and crushing it on a week-to-week basis. The rate at which we’re seeing favorites and overs cash is pretty contradictory to historical NFL betting, so I’m trying not to overreact from a formula-tweak standpoint yet. There’s plenty of football left to be played, so I’m definitely not going to waive the white flag in a sport I’ve historically done pretty well at, despite not being nearly as polished with it as I am with my college football model, which is what started TSI to begin with. I’ve already grabbed some early week 10 bets, so let’s get to them:

 

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6.5; 52.5)

Much like college totals in the high 60s or 70s, I generally would prefer to be on the Under on NFL totals in the 50s; however, sometimes the data and the eyeball test say you can’t pass on an Over, despite the high number. This is one of those cases. The Bengals’ defense has all but disappeared, while Joe Burrow and the offense are playing like it’s 2021 again. On the other side, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens just hung 40 on the Broncos – who have a TSI top-5 defense. This game features the TSI #2 offense (BAL), #12 offense (CIN), #6 defense (BAL) and #20 defense (CIN). There will be points galore here, projecting 55 points in the matchup, and the market agrees, as we’ve already seen this number tick up early in the week. 

NFL Week 10 Pick: Over 52.5 (Play to 53.5)

Tennessee Titans vs. LA Chargers (-7.5, 38) 

The market has undervalued Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers this year, moving against them last week against Cleveland in a game they dominated from start to finish. JK Dobbins looks like 2019 Ohio State JK Dobbins and the Chargers’ defense is #1 in the TSI. Meanwhile, Tennessee has completely dived head-first into irrelevance and is currently dead last in TSI – yes, below Carolina, Vegas, and the Giants. TSI projects LA -11 here, so we’re getting a ton of expected value on the number, and these teams could not be trending in more polar opposite directions. I think this could be a runaway Chargers win against a putrid – and somehow getting worse – Titans team. Tennessee is 28th on offense and 31st on defense, taking on the aforementioned #1 defense of LA, whose offense is starting to find a rhythm with QB Justin Herbert. Bolts up for me here.

NFL Week 10 Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -7.5 (Play -8)

For more NFL Week 10 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 10 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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