Early NFL Week 11 Picks and Predictions from the T Shoe Index:

We went 2-0 on our early week NFL bets last week, cashing the Chargers -7.5 and the Bengals/Ravens Over 52.5 pretty easily, setting up a nice 3-1 NFL week for article plays last week. I mentioned how, in the previous couple of weeks, I had been slaughtered by the NFL market, but I made the requisite changes to my formula. TSI responded in a big way, going 7-5-2 overall on every side in Week 10. Between the NFL getting back on track and college football on fire right now, we are building some nice momentum, so let’s keep it rolling into week 11, where I’ve already got a couple of NFL Week 11 picks I like at the current Tuesday morning lines. 

 

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Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5; 48)  

Kansas City is undefeated, but it feels like virtually every week they’re winning by the skin of their teeth, and they’re probably the best example of how power ratings don’t necessarily care if you’re winning or not, but rather how you play within a win or loss. Yes, they’re undefeated, so from a standings/résumé perspective, great, they’ve done what they had to do, so credit for that; however, we only care about betting around here, and that is where the Chiefs are overvalued at times, including this week against the Buffalo Bills. Even though they’re currently 2.5-point underdogs (still some 1.5s out there), TSI projects Buffalo -3, which is a huge distinction in NFL betting. Buffalo currently has the #6 offense and #3 defense in TSI, while Kansas City is at just 12th offensively and 6th defensively. I know, Patrick Mahomes as an underdog and all of that, but the numbers are the numbers, and I think this is the week the magic runs out for the (previously) undefeated Chiefs.

NFL Week 11 Pick: Bills -2.5, -110 (Play to -2.5, -130)

Baltimore Ravens (-3; 47.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

I’m not afraid to admit when I’m wrong, and I was wrong about the Russell Wilson situation in Pittsburgh. I thought he was washed up and not going to elevate that team; that couldn’t be farther from the truth. Pittsburgh went from a team I wouldn’t bet an Over on with your money to betting their Overs almost every week because they finally have an offense that can contribute to an Over. We cashed one last week, and I don’t think the market has caught up to them yet. Similarly, Baltimore has been lighting it up lately. This is not your father’s AFC North. These teams are putting up points in bunches, and TSI calls for 52 (!!) points in this one. We cashed Over tickets with both of these teams last week, and I’m going back to the well with two top 5 TSI offenses.

NFL Week 11 Pick: Over 47.5 (Play to 49)

For more NFL Week 11 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 11 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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