Week 12 of the NFL regular season is in the books and now we turn our attention to Week 13. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 10-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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Seattle Seahawks (-2, 41.5) at New York Jets

The Seahawks (6-5) have won two straight games and just took down the Cardinals 16-6, winning outright as 1-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Jets (3-8) have lost seven of their last eight games and just came up short against the Colts 28-27, losing outright as 4.5-point home favorites. This line opened with New York listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Sharps have quickly pounced on the Seahawks, flipping Seattle from a 1.5-point road dog to a 2-point road favorite. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of Seattle. Pros and Joes seems to be in agreement with the Seahawks, who are receiving roughly 80% of spread bets and dollars at DraftKings. Those looking to mitigate some risk in what might be a close game could elect to play Seattle on the moneyline at -130. Road favorites are 52-19 (73%) straight up this season with an 11% ROI. Non-conference favorites are 99-42 (70%) straight up with a 5% ROI since 2023. The Jets are 2-3 at home. The Seahawks are 3-1 on the road. Both teams are giving up roughly 22 PPG defensively. However, Seattle has the better offense (22.4 PPG compared to 18.5 PPG for New York). Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 43.5 to 41.5. The under is only receiving 39% of bets but a whopping 81% of dollars at DraftKings, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. The forecast calls for low 30s with partly cloudy skies and 10 MPH winds. When the total falls at least a half point, the under is 313-261 (55%) with a 4% ROI since 2021.

Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders (-6, 44.5)

The Titans (3-8) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 32-27 win over the Texans, winning outright as 8-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Commanders (7-5) have lost three straight and just fell to the Cowboys 34-26, losing outright as 10.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Washington listed as high as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public sees a “get right” spot for Washington and they’re laying the points with the Commanders, who have a far-better record and enjoy home-field advantage. However, despite receiving 61% of spread bets we’ve seen Washington fall from -7.5 to -6, with some shops even briefly touching -5.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Tennessee plus the points, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play. The Titans are only receiving 39% of spread bets but 47% of spread dollars at DraftKings, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy. Road dogs getting 6-points or more are 25-12 ATS (68%) with a 28% ROI this season. Tennessee also has buy-low value as a “bad” ATS team (2-9) against a sell-high “good” ATS team (7-4-1). Ron Torbert, the lead ref, is 58% ATS to the road team historically. In terms of the total, the public is playing the over (64% of bets at DraftKings), yet the line hasn’t budged. This indicates a bit of a sharp under line freeze, with books reluctant to raise the total despite the heavy over support. At Circa Sports, the under is receiving only 20% of bets but 66% of dollars, further evidence of wiseguy under money. The forecast calls for mid 30s with partly cloudy skies and 10-12 MPH winds.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6, 46.5) at Carolina Panthers

The Buccaneers (5-6) just snapped a four-game losing streak with a 30-7 blowout win over the Giants, taking care of business as 6-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Panthers (3-8) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to the Chiefs 30-27 but covering as 10.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy Buccaneers blowout win and 80% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Tampa Bay. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Tampa Bay fall from -6.5 to -6. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering the Bucs to begin with? Because respected pro money has come down on the Panthers plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their favor. The Panthers are one of the top contrarian plays on Sunday, receiving only 20% of spread bets at DraftKings. Carolina is also receiving 37% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split. Divisional dogs getting 6-points or more are 14-5 ATS (74%) with a 38% ROI this season. Carolina has buy-low value as a “bad” ATS team (4-7) against a sell-high “good” ATS team (7-4). We’ve also seen some sharp money take the over, raising the total from 44.5 to 46.5. The over is receiving 68% of bets and 74% of dollars at DraftKings, signaling both public and sharp support on a higher scoring game. The Panthers are 8-3 to the over this season, second best in the NFL. The Bucs are 7-4 to the over, ranking 7th best.

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