Early NFL Week 14 Best Bets and Predictions from Mike Somich:

I love Thanksgiving, it’s my favorite holiday, but, man, it makes an NFL week seem like it lasted forever. Week 13 was another week dominated by favorites on the money line with favorites winning all but one game. Of course, it was the Steelers who got the outright win as a dog with Russell Wilson destroying the Bengals defense with more than 400 yards passing.

Injuries will be one of the larger storylines heading into this week. The Giants lost Dexter Lawrence for the season, the 49ers’ running backs room is decimated, Trevor Lawerance is out for an extended period and the Lions defense is a MASH unit. Kirk Cousins may or may not be injured, but he looked bad against the Chargers, throwing four interceptions. I do not think a quarterback change will happen this week, but keep an eye out for that if Cousins struggles again this week.

 

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I had two teams, the Vikings and the Rams, as faulty finals. Both should have lost on Sunday but weathered first-half storms and won with a couple of good drives in the second half. I’m tempted to downgrade both even though they prevailed.

Now let’s look at the biggest two power rankings adjustments I made after the Week 13 games:

Move them up: Seattle Seahawks

A team I have bet on the last two weeks deserves another upgrade this week. The final score, 26-21 over the Jets, does not do justice to the actual performance. The Jets had one legitimate touchdown drive in the game, 11 plays for 80 yards, while the other 14 points came off a kick return TD and a fumbled kickoff (one of the two on the day). The Seahawks defense was dominant in the second half, which allowed the offense to do just enough to win. I’ve been talking about this defense on VSiN every chance I get. They are simply different since the bye and we saw that for a third week in a row.

The offense still has warts. Seattle is not consistent enough from down to down and they do not execute in the red zone, but with a top-10 defense, I believe the Seahawks still have their best football in front of them.

Move them down: Detroit Lions

This is a downgrade because of injury but one that must be pointed out nonetheless. The Lions now have 11 defensive players on injured reserve and have been forced to turn to other teams’ practice squads to fill holes. As the injuries piled up on Thanksgiving, the difference in the defense was noticeable. They kept the Bears in check early, but once they lost Malcolm Rodriguez at Linebacker and three defensive linemen, the Bears moved the ball at will.

The market seems to agree here as well. The Lions were six-point favorites at home against the Packers this week on the lookahead and now we are sitting at -3.5 and trending to -3. I made a two-point adjustment so I am closer to betting the Lions than the Packers and this would be a play for me if we get to -3 -110.

It’s all about the offense now in Detroit. They will have to simply outscore opponents. The Lions are capable of it, but they will need to be better in the red zone.

Early Week 14 NFL Best Bet:

Matt and I both got in front of a couple of moves on “Ready Set Bet” on Sunday. I took Under 45.5 in Seattle-Arizona, now at 44, and Matt played Over 47.5 in Cincinnati-Dallas, now at 49.5. Make sure to catch the last two hours live or on replay on the VSiN app to get our early bets.

Let’s head to “Sunday Night Football” for this week’s play. The Chiefs are a slow offense, we all know that, and the Chargers’ weapons are hurting. I’ve been all over Ladd McConkey Overs the last three weeks, but now it looks like he won’t be able to go against the Chiefs. I am not sure how the Chargers consistently move the ball without McConkey and J.K. Dobbins, who is on IR. Let’s take the Under here.

Week 14 NFL Best Bet: Chargers-Chiefs Under 43

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