Week 1 of the NFL regular season is in the books and now we turn our attention to Week 2. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5, 41.5)

The Raiders (0-1) just fell to the Chargers 22-10, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. Similarly, the Ravens (0-1) just came up short against the Chiefs 27-20, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. Pros and Joes are both rushing to the window to lay the points with Baltimore, steaming the Ravens up from -7.5 to -9.5. Baltimore is receiving 84% of spread bets and 94% of spread dollars, evidence of heavy one-way support as well as a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor. Baltimore has a notable “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Ravens played on Thursday while the Raiders played on Sunday. Las Vegas would also be a “fade” schedule spot, as they are a West Coast team traveling East for an early 1 p.m. ET game. Baltimore has betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is laying points. Lamar Jackson is 6-3 ATS (67%) with a 34% ROI as a home favorite of 9.5-points or more. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 43 to 41.5. The under is receiving 33% of bets but 69% of dollars, a notable sharp contrarian bet discrepancy.

New York Jets (-3.5, 40.5) at Tennessee Titans

The Jets (0-1) just got crushed by the 49ers 32-19 on Monday night, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Titans (0-1) just blew a 17-0 lead against the Bears and lost 24-17, failing to cover as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with New York listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public likes the Jets in a “bounce back” spot laying short road chalk. However, despite receiving 78% of spread bets we’ve seen New York fall from -4 to -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Tennessee, with pros grabbing the home dog plus the points. When two winless teams face off in Week 2, the dog is 45-23 ATS (66%) with a 28% ROI since 2005. Week 2 home dogs +6 or less are 18-8 ATS (69%) with a 30% ROI since 2018. The Titans have correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (40.5), as the fewer amount of expected points scored make it harder for the favorite to cover the number. Tennessee also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage as the Titans played on Sunday while the Jets played on Monday and are now on a short week. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 41.5 to 40.5. The under is receiving 59% of bets but 95% of dollars, indicating slight public support but also overwhelming sharp action on a lower scoring game.

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-1.5, 44)

The Giants (0-1) just got rolled by the Vikings 28-6, failing to cover as 1-point home dogs. Similarly, the Commanders (0-1) just got demolished by the Buccaneers 37-20, failing to cover as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with Washington listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public sees two bad teams is happy to lay the short chalk with the Commanders at home, who seem to be the “lesser of two evils” play for casual bettors. However, despite receiving a whopping 86% of spread bets we’ve seen Washington fall from -2.5 to -1.5. This indicates sharp money holding its nose and grabbing the Giants plus the points. The Giants are only receiving 14% of spread bets, making them one of the top contrarian plays of the week. When two winless teams face off in Week 2, the dog is 45-23 ATS (66%) with a 28% ROI since 2005. Divisional dogs are 207-176 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2020. Those looking to back New York would be wise to consider the Giants in a “Wong Teaser.” By taking the Giants up from +1.5 to +7.5, savvy wiseguys can pass through the top two key numbers of 3 and 7. Scott Novak, the lead ref, is 68-45 ATS (60%) to the road team, historically. We’ve also seen sharp money hit the over, raising the total from 41.5 to 44. The over is receiving 36% of bets but 72% of money, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split.

4:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5, 49)

The Rams (0-1) just fell to the Lions 26-20 in overtime, failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Cardinals (0-1) just came up short against the Bills 34-28 but managed to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is siding with the Rams laying short chalk on the road. However, despite 70% of spread bets backing Los Angeles we’ve seen this line completely flip in favor of Arizona +1 to -1.5. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement on the Cardinals. Arizona is only receiving 30% of spread bets but 70% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. John Hussey, the lead ref, is 84-59 ATS (60%) to the home team, historically. The Rams will be without star WR Puka Nacua, who is out indefinitely with a knee injury. We’ve also seen smart money hit the under, dropping the total from 50 to 49. The under is receiving 39% of bets but 46% of dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy. Hussey is 79-62 (56%) to the under historically.

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