The NFL regular season rolls on with a loaded 16 game slate for Week 2. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 46) at New York Jets
The Bills (1-0) pulled off an incredible come-from-behind 41-40 win over the Ravens in Week 1, winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Jets (0-1) fell to the Steelers 34-32 but managed to cover as 3-point home dogs.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as high as an 8.5-point road favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the big spread and 66% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Bills.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Buffalo fall from -8.5 to -6.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Jets plus the points, as the line has moved in New York’s favor despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, the Jets are receiving 34% of spread bets but 65% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Jets are taking in 64% of spread bets and a whopping 98% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home dog.
Dogs with “severe” line moves of 2-points or more in their favor are 87-65 ATS (57%) with an 11% ROI since 2018. Week 2 dogs coming off a loss, like the Jets here, are 101-75 ATS (57%) with an 11% ROI since 2005. Divisional dogs are 261-220 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2020. Big dogs getting 6.5-points or more are 135-108 ATS (56%) with a 6% ROI since 2022.
Those looking to back the Jets would be wise to shop around or wait and hold out for the key number of +7.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 48.5)
The Jaguars (1-0) just dismissed the Panthers 26-10 in Week 1, easily covering as 4.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Bengals (1-0) just outlasted the Browns 17-16 but failed to cover as 4.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as high as a 5.5-point home favorite.
The public is once again laying the points with Cincinnati, as the Bengals are receiving 65% of spread bets at DraftKings.
However, despite this public support we’ve seen Cincinnati fall from -5.5 to 3.5. In fact, several shops are juicing up Jaguars +3.5 (-115), signaling a possible further dip down to Bengals -3.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already laying the points with Cincinnati to begin with? Because respected sharp action has sided with the Jaguars plus the points, triggering wiseguy reverse line movement in Jacksonville’s favor.
At DraftKings, Jacksonville is taking in 35% of spread bets but 49% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Jags are receiving 57% of spread bets but a hefty 97% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a heavy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the road dog plus the points.
Dogs with “severe” line moves of 2-points or more in their favor are 87-65 ATS (57%) with an 11% ROI since 2018. Short road dogs +6 or less are 312-260 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2019.
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, 46.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Eagles (1-0) just outlasted the Cowboys 24-20 in Week 1 but failed to cover as 8.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (0-1) just fell to the Chargers 27-21 in Brazil, losing outright as 3-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have gotten down hard on Philadelphia, flipping the Eagles from a 1.5-point road dog to a 1.5-point road favorite. In others words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of Philadelphia.
At Circa, the Eagles are receiving 78% of spread bets and 89% of spread dollars, a notable one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in Philadelphia’s favor.
Jalen Hurts is 9-3 ATS (75%) as a short favorite of 3-points or less.
Sharps have also targeted the Eagles to win outright on the moneyline (-115), as they are taking in 80% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars at Circa.
Non-conference favorites are 113-69 (70%) straight up with a 4% ROI since 2023.
The Eagles enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having played last Thursday while the Chiefs played on Friday and then must travel back from Brazil to Kansas City.
The Eagles dominated the Chiefs in last year’s Super Bowl, winning 40-22 as 1.5-point neutral site dogs.
