Week 2 of the NFL regular season is in the books and now bettors turn their attention to Week 3. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book OUT NOW >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 44.5)
The Rams (2-0) just brushed aside the Titans 33-19 in Week 2, easily covering as 5.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Eagles (2-0) just edged the Chiefs 20-17, covering as 1.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 4.5-point home favorite.
The public expects another Eagles win and cover, with 59% of spread bets laying the points with Philadelphia at DraftKings.
However, despite receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen the Eagles fall from -4.5 to -3.5. In addition, the market is juicing up the Rams +3.5 (-115), signaling a possible dip down to the key number of 3. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Rams plus the points, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Los Angeles is receiving 41% of spread bets and 72% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split and further evidence of heavy wiseguy action in favor of the road dog.
When both teams are 2-0, the dog has gone 14-10 ATS (58%) with a 14% ROI since 2006. Short road dogs +6 or less are 7-6 ATS (54%) this season and 317-262 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2019.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 45.5 to 44.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 35% of bets but a whopping 81% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in over 90% of bets and dollars. Both books are showing heavy pro money leaning toward a lower scoring game.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 45.5)
The Broncos (1-1) just came up short against the Colts 29-28, losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Chargers (2-0) just took down the Raiders 20-9, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 79% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Chargers at home.
However, despite this lopsided support the Chargers have remained stagnant at -2.5. Normally, if a team is taking in such heavy action you would expect the line to rise up from -2.5 to -3 or -3.5. The fact this line has stayed right where it’s at indicates a wiseguy line freeze on the Broncos plus the points, with books reluctant to raise the spread for fear of giving out a better price to contrarian Broncos backers.
The Broncos are one of the top “bet against the public” plays of Week 3 as they are only receiving 21% of spread bets at DraftKings. However, at Circa the Broncos are taking in 60% of spread bets and a whopping 94% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” split and further evidence of desert sharps backing the road dog.
Those looking to go contrarian and back the unpopular dog Broncos would be wise to shop around and hold out for the key number of +3. Denver is also in a prime “Wong Teaser” spot. By taking the Broncos up from +2.5 to +8.5, savvy value-minded sharps can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
Divisional dogs are 263-224 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2020.
Denver also enjoys a one-day rest advantage, as the Broncos played on Sunday afternoon while the Chargers played Monday night and are now on a short week.
Kansas City Chiefs (-6, 45.5) at New York Giants
The Chiefs (0-2) just came up short against the Eagles 20-17, failing to cover as 1.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Giants (0-2) just fell to the Cowboys 40-37 in overtime but managed to cover as 4.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 6-point road favorite.
The public sees a “get right” spot for the Chiefs and 73% of spread bets are laying the points with Kansas City at DraftKings.
However, despite this lopsided support we’ve seen Kansas City remain frozen at -6, with a few shops even dipping down to -5.5. This signals wiseguy liability on the Giants plus the points, as the line has either stayed the same or moved in favor of New York despite being the hugely unpopular play.
The Giants have notable “bet against the public” value as they are only receiving 27% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, primetime Sunday Night Football game.
Primetime dogs are 5-2 ATS (71%) this season and 146-128 ATS (53%) with a 2% ROI since 2020. In his career, Russell Wilson is 45-28 ATS (62%) with a 20% ROI as a dog.
Teams that are 0-2 and are dogs in Week 3 have gone 37-17 ATS (69%) with a 32% ROI since 2017.
Pros are also expecting a higher scoring game as they’ve steamed the total up from as low as 41.5 to 45.5. At Circa, the over is receiving 67% of bets and a hefty 99% of dollars, a notable sharp over bet discrepancy.
