Early NFL Week 4 Best Bets and Predictions from Mike Somich:

As we look to the early NFL Week 4 best bets, Week 3 has put my rating into the blender. I still have as much confidence in the current numbers as ever, but this week is one of the most difficult I can remember with adjustments. The Ravens versus the Cowboys is a great example. You have a box score that says neither team should really move, but all of the Cowboys’ yards came in the fourth quarter, and they recovered an onside kick, which is exceptionally difficult under the new rules. In this case, I did not adjust the Ravens up because their ability to hold leads is concerning. The Cowboys, however, did get downgraded.

The Bears vs. the Colts is another one that was difficult to adjust. On paper, the game played out exactly as expected, landing close to the total and side. If you watch the game, the Colts did everything that they could do to lose with multiple atrocious interceptions from Anthony Richardson. The Bears also couldn’t run the ball against a defense that could not stop the run coming into the game. In the end, I downgraded both teams, the Colts a half point and the Bears a full point.

 

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Now let’s look at the biggest two power rankings adjustments that I made from the games this week:

Move them up: Washington Commanders        

This is why I waited until Tuesday to write and post this article. The Vikings were the obvious choice for this spot on Monday morning. They have been solid despite a tough early schedule, and I absolutely love what the coaching has done on both sides of the ball.

The Commanders get this spot for one main reason. Jayden Daniels. Quarterbacks should make up a large portion of your power ratings, and Jayden Daniels has proven that he belongs in the NFL. The offense had seven scoring drives last week and then was averaging over 8 yards per play in the first half against the Bengals on Monday. They finished the game with 6.2 yards per play, and Daniels sealed the game by reading a 0 blitz and throwing a dime in the endzone to McLaurin. The defense isn’t great, but Daniels will keep them in games when healthy.

Move them down: Jacksonville Jaguars 

There was no shortage of options for this section. The Chargers and Dolphins were candidates simply due to QB injury. The Saints, Bengals, Bucs and Browns all had a mess of a week, but the crown goes to the Jaguars.

They simply have no excuse. Their Week 1 and Week 2 losses to the Dolphins and Browns have not aged well, and they were absolutely shelled by the Bills. Trevor Lawerance is still searching for the game that touted him as one of the best prospects this late decade. The skill positions are not good, and the defense does not possess a strong group.

Coaching is also a glaring issue for this team. I railed on them last year for losing games in silly manners. If it wasn’t penalties, it was turnovers. If it wasn’t turnovers, it was game plan. There was always an issue, and through three weeks, they are all still issues.

Early Week 4 NFL Best Bet:

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Colts Under got us home last week ,and we are going to go right back to the well here with the under in the Steelers vs. Colts game. I do not trust Anthony Richardson against the Steelers defense at all. The Steelers offense should be content to pound away against this Colts defense who could not stop the Green Bay run at all in Week 2.

Week 4 NFL Best Bet: Steelers/Colts Under 40

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