Week 3 of the NFL regular season is in the books and now bettors turn their attention to Week 4. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 41) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
This early 9:30 a.m. ET game on Sunday will be played overseas in Dublin, Ireland.
The Vikings (2-1) just dominated the Bengals 48-10, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Steelers (2-1) just held off the Patriots 21-14, covering as 1.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Vikings, flipping Minnesota from a 2.5-point neutral site dog to a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Vikings.
At DraftKings, the Vikings are receiving 59% of spread bets and 70% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split indicating slight public support but also respected sharp action in their favor.
Those looking to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game that may not cover the number could also entertain Minnesota on the moneyline at -145. At Circa, the Vikings are taking in 60% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of heavy pro money out in Vegas banking on a straight up Vikings victory.
Non-conference favorites are 8-4 (67%) straight up this season and 119-53 (69%) straight up with a 3% ROI since 2023.
We’ve also seen chalk perform well in International Series games. Since 2007, International series favorites are 33-10 (77%) straight up and 29-15 ATS (66%).
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 49.5)
The Colts (3-0) just brushed aside the Titans 41-20, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Rams (2-1) just fell to the Eagles 33-26, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as high as a 5.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have jumped on the red-hot Colts plus the points, dropping Indianapolis from +5.5 to +3.5. In addition, several shops across the market are juicing up Colts +3.5 (-115), signaling further liability on the road dog and a possible fall down to the key number of +3.
At DraftKings, the Colts are taking in 54% of spread bets and 55% of spread dollars, indicating a slight public lean as well as a majority of smart money in their favor.
Dogs with severe line moves of 2-points or more in their favor are 89-69 ATS (56%) with a 9% ROI since 2018. Short road dogs +6 or less are 319-267 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2019.
In his regular season career, Daniel Jones is 18-10 ATS (64%) with a 24% ROI as a road dog.
Indianapolis is also a “dog who can score” system match (averaging 34.3 PPG, tied for 2nd in the NFL). This increases the chances the Colts can keep pace or back door cover.
Sharps have also hammered this over, raising the total from 46.5 to 49.5.
At DraftKings, the over is receiving 69% of bets and 94% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 44% of bets and 60% of dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy bet split in favor of a higher scoring game.
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-9.5, 44.5)
The Browns (1-2) just shocked the Packers 13-10, winning outright as 7.5-point home dogs. Similarly, the Lions (2-1) just upset the Ravens 38-30, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Detroit listed as high as a 10.5-point home favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the big chalk and 67% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Lions at home.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Detroit fall from -10.5 to -9.5, with some shops even touching down as low as -8.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the road dog plus the points, as the line has moved in favor of Cleveland despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, the Browns are receiving 33% of spread bets but 55% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor.
Big dogs +6.5 or more are 6-4 ATS (60%) this season and 139-111 ATS (56%) with a 7% ROI since 2022.
Cleveland also enjoys a one-day rest advantage as the Browns played on Sunday while the Lions played Monday night and are now on a short week.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 44.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 48% of bets and 57% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 67% of bets and a hefty 99% of dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
