NFL Week 5 Picks from the T Shoe Index:

It was a mixed bag of NFL bets in Week 4, but I’m still up 6.76 units on the season through the T Shoe Index. Losing the Titans/Dolphins Under on Monday night was pretty brutal, as Tennessee opted to punch in a 4th-and-Goal touchdown with 30 seconds left, following a safety and subsequent onside kick that gave Tennessee a short field. Nonetheless, I also had Titans +1 so it was a Monday Night Football wash, for all intents and purposes. 

Now I’ve turned my attention to Week 5, with updated TSI ratings and projections, so let’s see where there’s some early value on the board.

 

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Kansas City Chiefs (-5) vs New Orleans Saints, O/U 42.5

After scoring 40+ points in each of their first two games, the Saints have scored just 36 total in the last two. I’m expecting that trend to go back the other way here against the Chiefs, who are also capable of putting some points on the board, scoring 22+ in three out of four games so far. TSI projects this total to be 46, as both offenses are in the TSI top 10. Further, the Saints are second in opponent-adjusted points per play and the Chiefs are ninth. Both teams are dealing with some injuries, which is probably why the market is sitting at such a low number, but I’m willing to roll the dice and trust TSI (and Patrick Mahomes) on this one.

Bet: Over 42.5 (Play to 44.5)

Houston Texans (-1) vs Buffalo Bills, O/U 47

I’m obviously a big numbers guy, but I do appreciate the situational spot more than people probably think, and I think this is a great spot to get the Bills catching a point. They just got destroyed on Sunday Night Football for the country to see; meanwhile, CJ Stroud saved the day for Houston by leading a game-winning drive with under a minute left against the lowly Jaguars. TSI projects Bills -3.5, and I’ll be surprised if Buffalo doesn’t close as a road favorite here in H-Town. Buffalo has the #3 TSI offense and #1 TSI defense so far this year, while Houston sits at #16 and #23, respectively. Buffalo is the better team so I’m happy to take them as a short dog here. 

Bet: Bills +1 (Play to -1)

For more NFL Week 5 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 5 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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