Week 4 of the NFL regular season is in the books and now we turn our attention to Week 5. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 40.5)

This early 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday kickoff will be played in London. The Jets (2-2) just fell to the Broncos 10-9, losing outright as 8-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Vikings (4-0) just outlasted the Packers 31-29, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. The early lookahead line on this game was Jets -3.5. But after Sunday’s results we saw it quickly adjust to Vikings -2.5. Now, we are seeing the market juice up the Vikings -2.5 (-115), signaling a possible rise up to the key number of -3. Essentially, all movement and liability has been on the Vikings with no buyback on the Jets. Minnesota is receiving 82% of spread bets and 81% of spread dollars, indicating heavy one-way action from both sharps and the betting public. Those looking to follow the Vikings line move but wary of laying points around a key number in what might end up being a close game could instead elect to play Minnesota on the moneyline at -150. International favorites are 34-10 straight up (77%) since the NFL began playing games outside of the United State. The Vikings have a big edge on offense, averaging 29 PPG (4th) while the Jets are averaging 19 PPG (21st). Minnesota also has value as a non-conference favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win.

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 36)

The Raiders (2-2) just took down the Browns 20-16, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Similarly, the Broncos (2-2) just upset the Jets 10-9, winning outright as 8-point road dogs. This line opened with Denver listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public sees two evenly matched teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this 50/50 spread bet split, we’ve seen the Broncos move from -1.5 to -2.5. Several shops are even juicing up Broncos -2.5 (-115), signaling a possible further rise up to the key number of 3. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even as theoretically the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the number. So, based on the line move we can infer than pro money has sided with the Broncos laying the short chalk at home. Those looking to protect themselves in what might be a close game could also consider Denver on the moneyline at -145. The Broncos are receiving 57% of moneyline bets and 64% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. Wiseguys have also hit the under, dropping the total from 38 to 36. Outdoor divisional unders are 6-2 this season and 229-183 (56%) with a 7% ROI since 2021. When the total is 39 or less (low total unders), the under is 5-2 this season and 37-27 (58%) with a 10% ROI over the past two seasons.

Green Bay Packers (-3, 48.5) at Los Angeles Rams

The Packers (2-2) just came up short against the Vikings 31-29, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Rams (1-3) just fell to the Bears 24-18, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover the the Packers and 71% of spread bets are laying the short chalk with Green Bay. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the Packers fall from -3.5 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Los Angeles, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the highly unpopular side. The Rams are one of the top contrarian plays of the week, receiving only 29% of spread bets. Dogs getting 3-points or more are 27-20 ATS (57%) this season. Sean McVay is 14-9 ATS (61%) as a dog getting 3-points or more as head coach of the Rams. Jordan Love is 10-6 ATS (63%) as a dog in his career but just 2-4 ATS (33%) as a favorite. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here, as the total has risen from 47.5 to 48.5. The over is receiving 62% of bets but a whopping 93% of dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 44)

The Cowboys (2-2) just held off the Giants 20-15 but failed to cover as 5.5-point road favorites. Conversely, the Steelers (3-1) just fell to the Colts 27-24, losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Dallas listed as a short 1-point road favorite. The public is all over “America’s Team” at an attractive short chalk price and 66% of spread bets are backing the Cowboys. However, despite Dallas receiving two-thirds of spread bets we’ve seen this line completely flip to Steelers -2.5. Several shops are even juicing up Steelers -2.5 (-115), signaling a possible further rise up to the key number of 3. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement on Pittsburgh, with wiseguys backing the unpopular home team. The Steelers offer notable contrarian value as they are only receiving 34% of spread bets in a nationally televised primetime Sunday Night Football game. The Steelers are only receiving 34% of spread bets but 45% of spread dollars, further evidence of the sharper wagers in their favor. Mike Tomlin is 56-41 ATS (58%) with a 13% ROI off a loss as coach of the Steelers. Pittsburgh has a big edge defensively, allowing only 13.3 PPG (2nd) while Dallas has given up 26 PPG (27th). The Steelers are -135 on the moneyline for those looking for added security in what might prove to be a close game. The Cowboys are expected to be without two of their top defenders in Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence due to injury.

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