Week 4 of the NFL regular season is in the books and now bettors turn their attention to Week 6. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 36.5) vs Cleveland Browns
This early 9:30 a.m. ET showdown on Sunday will be played overseas in London.
The Vikings (2-2) just came up short against the Steelers 24-21 last week, losing outright as 2.5-point neutral site favorites in Ireland. Meanwhile, the Browns (1-3) just got crushed by the Lions 34-10, failing to cover as 10-point road dogs.
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have jumped on the Browns plus the points, dropping Cleveland from +4.5 to +3.5.
At DraftKings, the Browns are receiving 60% of spread bets and 89% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Browns are taking in 29% of spread bets and 75% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of Cleveland plus the points.
Dogs off a blowout loss of 20-points or more, like the Browns here, are 4-2 ATS (67%) this season and 125-97 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2018.
Cleveland has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (36.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover.
The Browns will be starting rookie Dillon Gabriel at quarterback over Joe Flacco.
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 43.5)
The Broncos (2-2) just brushed aside the Bengals 38-3, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Eagles (4-0) just held off the Buccaneers 31-25, covering as 3.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 4.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is too short and 71% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Eagles at home.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the Eagles fall from -4.5 to -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Denver plus the points, as the line has moved in favor of the Broncos despite being the unpopular play.
Denver is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of Week 5 as the Broncos are only receiving 29% of spread bets in one of the most heavily bet early 1 p.m. ET kickoffs.
At Circa, Denver is taking in 19% of spread bets and 44% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split and further evidence of the wiseguy Vegas wagers backing the road dog.
Short road dogs +6 or less are 321-271 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2019.
Jalen Hurts is 17-21 ATS (45%) as a favorite of 3.5-points or more in his career.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 50.5)
The Patriots (2-2) just dominated the Panthers 42-13, easily covering as 5.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Bills (4-0) just took down the Saints 31-19 but failed to cover as 14.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 10.5-point home favorite.
Sharps seem to think that spread was a bit high and have gotten down hard on New England, dropping the Patriots from +10.5 to +7.5.
At DraftKings, the Patriots are receiving 54% of spread bets and 89% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Patriots are taking in only 17% of spread bets but a whopping 98% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the road dog.
Big dogs +6.5 or more are 8-7 ATS (53%) this season and 141-114 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2022.
This is also a Sunday Night Football showdown, which means the Patriots match as a primetime dog. Primetime dogs are 8-5 ATS (62%) this season and 149-131 ATS (53%) with a 2% ROI since 2020. If the primetime dog is getting 6.5-points or more they improve to 56-39 ATS (59%) with a 13% ROI since 2020.
Divisional dogs are 224-185 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2020.
Mike Vrabel is 30-23 ATS (57%) with an 8% ROI as a dog in his career.
Josh Allen is just 14-16 ATS (47%) as a favorite of 7.5-points or more in his career.
