Early NFL Week 6 Best Bets and Predictions from Mike Somich:

We’re five weeks into the NFL season and boy, has it been a wonky one so far! While the expected teams in the AFC are at the top of their divisions, the NFC has been wildly unpredictable. Your division leaders are Washington, Minnesota, Atlanta and Seattle. Not exactly what everyone expected before the season started.

While it has been tough to project sides on a week-to-week basis, some clear trends have developed on totals. We have a handful of teams that have shown themselves to be dead Over plays in the last few weeks and I’m interested to see if the books catch up. I’ve played Over in the Panthers and Colts games over the last three weeks and have gotten to the window each time.

 

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Both teams are the perfect storm for it. They have no pass rush and weak secondary play while their offenses can score against any average-or-worse defense. Player props against both teams have also been very profitable. Running backs against the Panthers have been an ATM to this point and wide receivers have been eating up the Colts’ D. I expect both trends to continue this week.

Now let’s look at the biggest two power rankings adjustments I’ve made this week:

Move them up: New York Giants

Some people would have the Denver Broncos here. They have covered four straight games, but I have bet them four weeks in a row and have been over market on them all season. The final score against the Raiders on Sunday also does not fully reflect the game play. The Broncos could have easily been down 17-3 if not for a 100-yard interception return to swing that game and make it 10-10.

The Giants, on the other hand, dominated the Seahawks from the start, and while it got tight late, they were always the better team on Sunday. Daniel Jones looked like the quarterback who took the Giants to the playoffs two years ago and did so without his best wideout, Malik Nabers. The next three are tough for them with the Bengals, Eagles and Steelers on deck, but that means we should be catching points in each of those spots and, based on the market’s values of each team, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Giants go 2-1 or 3-0 ATS.

Move them down: Las Vegas Raiders

While the Patriots and Panthers have locked in being the two worst teams in the NFL, I would not be shocked if the Raiders get close to them at some point this season. As I mentioned, the Raiders were more competitive than the final score against the Broncos, but the internal aspects of this team are a mess.

While there still is talent on the team with pass rusher Maxx Crosby and tight end Brock Bowers, the defensive secondary is a mess and Antonio Pierce was the wrong decision as head coach. I do not trust this offense will be able to consistently move the football without a ground game, and they are not built to lose time of possession and win games.

Early Week 6 NFL Best Bet:

Let’s go back to the well with a game that is lined too low for my numbers here. The Panthers host the Falcons on Sunday, and this number has dropped below the key total number of 48. Atlanta’s offense should have success both through the air and on the ground this week versus a banged-up Panthers defense. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons cannot rush the passer, which should allow the Panthers’ passing attack to get rolling again.

Week 6 NFL Best Bet: Falcons / Panthers Over 47.5

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